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Better point or better distribution? 64S-64D-42Z-32?

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Sunday, 8 August 2010, at 8:10 a.m.

In Response To: Better point or better distribution? 64S-64D-42Z-32? (Timothy Chow)


2O ' ' ' '5X '3X2X ' '3O

1X1X ' ' '5O1O3O1O ' '3X

64S-64D-42Z-32


I call this an "off-two 5/4" decision (assuming early game where both sides still having back checkers, and no points are being broken). If you make the 5pt, you have a balanced three-four distribution (three on the 8pt and four on the six-point), whereas if you make the 4pt, you have a two-five distribution. The difference between three-four and two-five is two. Hence, "off-two," and "5/4" is short for 5pt versus 4pt.

In an off-two 5/4 decision, the 5pt usually triumphs. OTB, unless I know the exact position (or a convincingly close reference position), I go with the 5pt; it seems to be in the range of +.06 to -.02, and +.02 (i.e., right by .02) on average. A couple examples of off-two 5/4 can be found here.

One day, I'll develop rules to spot off-two decisions where the lower point is better (rather than trying to remember a bunch of reference positions).

Interesting is the third option, B (Both, 24/21 9/7), though I wouldn't play it here.

If you change the roll to 43, I'm pretty sure that the 4pt will beat the 3pt. It's harder to find a lower-point winner for an off-two 4/3 situation.

Nack

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