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Explaining the Rollout Result

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Monday, 9 August 2010, at 3:17 a.m.

In Response To: Explaning the Rollout Result (Paul Weaver)


2O ' ' ' '5X '3X2X ' '3O

1X1X ' ' '5O1O3O1O ' '3X

Blue rolls 32 or 43157


I find it interesting that

(a) With 32, making the 4pt is (by a hair) better than making the 5pt even though the 5pt blocks an extra shot (43 44 vs 53).

(b) With 43, making the 4pt is better (I'm pretty sure) than making the 3pt even though the 3pt blocks 2 extra shots (61).

I'm assuming that Opp should play 9/7(2) 6/4(2) with double 2s regardless; otherwise that's another shot that making the 4pt "gives up."

This is a testament to the strength of duplication (thereby giving White awkward rolls like 32 -- though there's more than that roll going on).

Nack

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