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Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Wednesday, 27 June 2007, at 5:23 p.m.

In Response To: APC (Stick)

APC = A Perfect Circle

As standard as a really late 3pt. holding game can get. I wondered how many would pass this and even wonder more still OTB. There is still some racing vig. left here. Blue is going to bury more & probably have open 3 & 4 pts. from the get go. You'll be able to play one of your back checkers and your outfield checker pretty efficiently so there should be no wastage. That and Hickey's Postulate =P If I get some time I'll see how big of an effect the actual racing has on it by taking White's homeboard checkers and making an outfield prime and possibly seeing how far I have to trash White's board to kill the shot equity before it's a pass.

The score (after 0 games) is: Stick 0, Readers 0

Move number 3: Readers to play 21

Stick	105
Readers	70
Position ID: bdsCAQw37jYAAA Match ID: cAkFAAAAAAAA

• Readers doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.4728
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, take	+0.8486
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+0.1514
3.	No double	+0.8057	-0.0429
Proper cube action:		Double, take
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.7307 0.0278 0.0004 - 0.2693 0.0165 0.0003 +0.4728 +0.8057 Standard error 0.0011 0.0007 0.0000 - 0.0011 0.0006 0.0000 0.0022 0.0048 Player Stick owns 2-cube 0.7352 0.0280 0.0002 - 0.2648 0.0166 0.0004 +0.9633 +0.8486 Standard error 0.0013 0.0008 0.0001 - 0.0013 0.0007 0.0001 0.0051 0.0064
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
941 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1068226299 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• APC
  Stick -- Tuesday, 26 June 2007, at 10:14 p.m.
  • APC
    Chase -- Tuesday, 26 June 2007, at 11:22 p.m.
  • APC
    Peter G. -- Wednesday, 27 June 2007, at 11:14 a.m.
  • APC
    MaX -- Wednesday, 27 June 2007, at 11:18 a.m.
  • APC
    Chuck Bower -- Wednesday, 27 June 2007, at 1:26 p.m.
    • APC
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Wednesday, 27 June 2007, at 4:13 p.m.
  • APC
    garyo -- Wednesday, 27 June 2007, at 2:33 p.m.
  • Rollout
    Stick -- Wednesday, 27 June 2007, at 5:23 p.m.