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BGonline.org Forums
2 away - 5 away cube handling
Posted By: Stick In Response To: 2 away - 5 away cube handling (nixo)
Date: Tuesday, 10 August 2010, at 6:39 a.m.
- DP makes it -5 -1 or 15.5%
- DTL loses the match or 0%
- DTW makes it -1 -2 or 68%
Risking 15.5% to gain 52.5% or a (live cube) take point of 23%. Most anchor holding games yield 70-77% wins depending on the state of the position. This position is out of the normal realm of 21pt holding games in the sense that the person considering taking/passing has a game that is overrun. It's quite horrible in that even if they do somehow get and hit a shot their board isn't likely to be in any state to contain in the near future with so many checkers on the deep points.
The doubles has the bar point made, the 11pt made, a cushy 30 pip lead, and the remaining spares in a pretty good spot along with a few of numbers that could hit the outfield blot and make the 3rd home board point. I would guess this position is well beyond the standard 77% range of your typical holding game, easily over 80% making it a stone cold drop if cubed.
That's the second half of the question, if cubed. Could it possibly be too good? I think so, technically. There are so few sequences where the position could turn such as a poor 21 by white followed by a 66 by black which still leaves white up 9 pips, on roll, in a dead race and handily winning the game. In theory I'll say it's TG but in practice I would cube expecting my donkey of an opponent not to understand the score and take often.
Stick
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