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Redoubling To 4 When Trailing in the Match

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Tuesday, 10 August 2010, at 5:32 p.m.

In Response To: Redoubling To 4 When Trailing in the Match (Paul Weaver)

1) Leader's 4-cube takepoint ATS is 27% or so, gammon values favor the trailer in a big way by something like 80%/14%, and the trailer's 8-cube takepoint is around 7% so the leader's cube vig is severely limited. White has lots of good rolls but his aces are triplicated(and hard to play well). Is it a take? I think so but definitely a recube ATS IMO. 2)Leader needs around 26% to take, gammon values favor trailer by approx 66%/38%, and trailer's 8-cube takepoint is around 17%. We have a 2-way gammonish position where 26/27 entering rolls hit something, 7 of which hit twice. A hit/fan sequence is very gammonish and that occurs > 30% of the time so it's gotta be a redouble for the trailer ATS. I'll guess Paul/Kenji wins 33%/15% g's here so Kenji needs 42% less maybe 3% or so for recube vig to take. I think he's got that so R/T looks right to me. 3) Trailer needs approx 17% to take. Does White win this often? It looks like a better than average 3-point game since Kenji has 4 men buried on the ace and deuce and 3 immediate blot numbers. Other numbers like 66,65,and 44 are safe but leave an awkward position with quite a few blot numbers on Black's next shake. Still looks like a good redouble to me but I think it's a take.

R/T looks correct to me in all 3 positions.

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