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7a-6a Recube Action

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Tuesday, 10 August 2010, at 9:02 p.m.

In Response To: 7a-6a Recube Action (Leonardo Jerkovic)

Can Black take? My OTB estimates are that his 4-cube takepoint is around 26%, the gammon values favor the trailer by around 55%/32%, and the trailer's 8-cube takepoint is around 16%. Adjusting for g's and Black's less than normal cube vig raises the takepoint to around 30%.

Can he win this often? Looks close. He's up in the race and has a strong board but 2/3 of the time he gets a 2nd man hit and a lot of the non-hitters play pretty well for White as well. 66,33,22,and 11 hit and make the 5-point while the other 20 hits create lots of builders. How about the non-hitters? 55,44,31,53, and probably 54 make another point or two in his board while 43 and 41 create extra builders.

Maybe I'm being too pessimistic here but I can't find 30% wins for White, so I'd reluctantly pass.

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