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OLM Tu 08/10/10

Posted By: Stick
Date: Wednesday, 11 August 2010, at 8:45 a.m.

In Response To: OLM Tu 08/10/10 (Matt Cohn-Geier)

I must be crazy because I would hit here.

You are crazy.

We're stuck in the race

I wouldn't use the term 'stuck' as often it implies a much bigger racing deficit than what we have here. We're behind but not hopelessly.

we aren't guaranteed to throw that perfect 5 or 6 and spring the spare next time (and losing the midpoint is really going to suck)

If we step up 24/21 we have all the 5s and 6s that hop and on top of that we can still nicely play 11, 22, 33, 44, and 31. That gives us 26 playable numbers next turn, not too shabby. The rest of the numbers aren't the worst thing in the world either depending on our opponent's roll. Losing the mid isn't that bad, it's what we plan to do anyway as soon as we get a chance to attack something in a better spot than our current situation.

The only downside is that getting hit back is pretty bad

The only downside is that by hitting we wouldn't be making the best play which is 24/21. I would consider both hitting plays and suppose at dmp I'd hit 5/2 but it's probably too rich when our gammon losses count against us. 24/21 loses out on a fair amount of gammon wins than either of the hitting plays but more than makes up for that I believe in gammon losses it saves us. It's hard for me to find the right tradeoff in wins/gw v. losses/gl but I think 24/21 should come out on top. More importantly if you're unsure OtB you could rationalize that 24/21 is the least likely to be a big error.

For Jason, 24/21.

Stick

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