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Rollout Results of Three Positions Posted

Posted By: Paul Weaver
Date: Wednesday, 11 August 2010, at 10:48 a.m.

In Response To: Redoubling To 4 When Trailing in the Match (Paul Weaver)

I have very good news for all of us who love to STEAM in money games: When trailing in a match, it is mathematically correct to STEAM, i.e., double early, redouble when it is a beaver, and take positions that are sometimes TGTD for money.

By the way, I wish someone (Stick, perhaps?) would let me know what the acronym "TFG" stands for. Been tryin to figger it out for some time now.

In the first two positions, White wins about 30% or 32% gammons. It is a serious crime to not turn the cube and give yourself a 30+% chance of winning and 8pt game.





is Player 2

score: 4
pip: 127
9 point match
pip: 114
score: 1

is Player 1
XGID=a-aC-BDBBa------aAbbbcb-A-:1:1:1:00:1:4:0:9:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 53.11% (G: 29.69% B: 3.61%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 46.89% (G: 11.66% B: 0.97%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 53.67% (G: 30.21% B: 7.13%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 46.33% (G: 11.84% B: 1.41%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:+0.341
Redouble:+1.231
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:+0.780 (-0.220)
Redouble/Take:+1.153 (+0.153)
Redouble/Drop:+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Drop
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Redouble: ± 0.015 (+0.764...+0.795)
Confidence Redouble: ± 0.028 (+1.125...+1.180)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 8 minutes 32 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.20, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 149
9 point match
pip: 107
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-aBbBDCA-A--b---Aabbbba--A:1:1:1:00:0:2:0:9:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 47.11% (G: 31.73% B: 1.72%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 52.89% (G: 18.85% B: 2.04%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 47.78% (G: 32.44% B: 1.92%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 52.22% (G: 18.04% B: 3.89%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:+0.109
Redouble:+0.528
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:+0.280 (-0.048)
Redouble/Take:+0.328
Redouble/Drop:+1.000 (+0.672)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Redouble: ± 0.016 (+0.264...+0.296)
Confidence Redouble: ± 0.027 (+0.300...+0.355)
Double Decision confidence: 99.8%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 26 minutes 20 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.20, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 72
9 point match
pip: 118
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-BBABBB------A---bbcbbCbb-:2:-1:-1:00:0:2:0:9:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 82.41% (G: 13.38% B: 0.19%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 17.59% (G: 0.65% B: 0.01%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 82.56% (G: 18.02% B: 0.12%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 17.44% (G: 0.66% B: 0.01%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:+0.732
Redouble:+1.004
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:+0.909 (-0.028)
Redouble/Take:+0.937
Redouble/Drop:+1.000 (+0.063)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Redouble: ± 0.004 (+0.906...+0.913)
Confidence Redouble: ± 0.006 (+0.932...+0.943)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 13 minutes 25 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.20, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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