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3-away, 16-away cube decision

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Wednesday, 11 August 2010, at 6:41 p.m.

In Response To: 3-away, 16-away cube decision (adambulldog)

I can't pass this as this score. Maybe I can get lucky and hit something or roll really big.

Lets try one of Neil's Rules to help determine if White should cube. Taking values from R/K if Blue passes he wins the match 1.8% of the time. Lets assume Blue takes and recubes to 4 no matter what. It seems reasonable, perhaps a bit high, to assume that Blue wins 20% with 2% gammons.

So... 18% of the time Blue wins 8.52% of the matches for 1.53% ..... 2% of the time Blue wins 19.52% of the matches for 0.39%

So assuming my assumptions are correct Blue wins 1.92% by taking and recubing no matter what and 1.80% by passing. While I do think I was slightly optmistic about Blue's chances here, when I note that Blue can recube whenever he wants to, I doubt that doubling now is proper for White.

ND/T

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