NeilKaz : Am surprised we aren't holding the cube here to be honest.
So am I. I would have double if I was XGR+ after 13/7 5/2* (and even more after any other play).
XGR+ says ND: 0.478, DT: 0.471.
Here is RO after 2592 games (in honor of Jason's hard work i'll post it using the BGOnline images). The RO hints to ND, but longer one seems to be required.
With 20 hits and a 5 broken prime i still don't understand why i should wait to cube.
btw, my vote goes to 16/12 13/10 noting that if we get a 6 we need to escape the 22 checker so there is no point in keeping the checker on the 13 point in place. Blitzing seems suicidal here with no ammo!
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| XGID=aAABBBBA----aA-b-bcbbC-b--:0:0:-1:00:8:8:0:15:10 | |||||
| White on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | |
| No Double | |
| Player Winning Chances: | 63.13% (G: 22.49% B: 1.17%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 36.87% (G: 12.31% B: 0.29%) |
| Double/Take | |
| Player Winning Chances: | 63.30% (G: 22.25% B: 1.08%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 36.70% (G: 12.37% B: 0.49%) |
| Cubeless Equities | |
| No Double: | +0.376 |
| Double: | +0.764 |
| Cubeful Equities | |
| No Double: | +0.505 |
| Double/Take: | +0.498 (-0.006) |
| Double/Drop: | +1.000 (+0.495) |
| Best Cube action: No Double / Take | |
| Rollout details | |
| 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply | |
| Confidence No Double: | ± 0.015 (+0.490...+0.519) |
| Confidence Double: | ± 0.022 (+0.476...+0.521) |
| Double Decision confidence: | 68.0% |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Duration: 13 minutes 02 seconds | |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross