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Insightful comment about luck versus skill

Posted By: Marv Porten
Date: Friday, 13 August 2010, at 6:13 p.m.

In Response To: Insightful comment about luck versus skill (Timothy Chow)

1. Someone might be the most skilled pistol shooter in the world, always making at least 49 out of 50 bullseyes. No one else has ever come close to that record. In the next competition, an opponent gets lucky and hits all 50 bullseyes, while the "more skillful" shooter hits 49 out of 50. That's an example of someone with the higher skill level sometimes losing.

2. Someone might be the most skilled blackjack player in the world, always playing perfectly. Mathematical calculations show that in the long run he'll have a 0.4% advantage at a particular casino. In the short run, he might lose 10 or 20 or 30 hands in a row.

3. Someone might be the most skilled checker player in the world. On any particular day, on any particular move, he might be distracted, or he might have a vision problem (similar to a backgammon player "seeing" 52 on the dice when it's actually 53), and he makes a misplay and loses to an inferior player.

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