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Insightful comment about luck versus skill

Posted By: mamabear
Date: Friday, 13 August 2010, at 7:05 p.m.

In Response To: Insightful comment about luck versus skill (Matt Cohn-Geier)

This relates to your earlier point about knowledge and skill not being the same thing, whether you have them or lack them. Isn't the crooked coin flip game the mathematical equivalent of betting on the who's-younger game? The winner will be the one who has examined in advance the coin or both birth certificates.

Another example is playing the stock market with inside information. The person who "wins" (at least till the SEC catches up with him) isn't necessarily a good stock picker in general, though of course he might be--we don't have enough information to say. But at this moment, he has some game-changing knowledge that his opponents don't, and for that reason will outperform them.

And speaking of the stock market, if we leave inside information out of the picture, what constitutes luck and skill there? How much of each, in numerical terms or compared to various games?

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