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Insightful comment about luck versus skill

Posted By: Bill Riles
Date: Saturday, 14 August 2010, at 12:57 a.m.

In Response To: Insightful comment about luck versus skill (Timothy Chow)

If purely random play at DMP win 3.1% of the time and purely random play regardless of score wins 4%-5% of the time, how often does a weak intermediate player (little experience, knows very basic concepts, little/no concept of cube and match score implications, etc.) win against a world class player in a 9-11 point match?

I know this is impossible to model but would be interested in estimates assuming fairly even dice. I will assume as the dice get better the world class player approaches 100% and the opponent might approach 50%. But with fairly even dice?

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