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Insightful comment about luck versus skill

Posted By: Tom Keith
Date: Saturday, 14 August 2010, at 12:24 p.m.

In Response To: Insightful comment about luck versus skill (Bill Riles)

how often does a weak intermediate player (little experience, knows very basic concepts, little/no concept of cube and match score implications, etc.) win against a world class player in a 9-11 point match?

The Elo formula is probably not terribly accurate for large differences in ability, but we can still see what it says. Suppose a world class player is rated 2000 and an average player is 1500. Your "weak intermediate" would be maybe 1400? That's a difference of 600 rating points, which equates to a 90.8% probability of winning an 11-point match.

In real life, I think the probability would be quite a bit higher. As soon as the WC player realizes his opponent has no deep knowledge of the game, he will start playing complicated games.

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