[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

Insightful comment about luck versus skill

Posted By: Rich Munitz
Date: Saturday, 14 August 2010, at 7:34 p.m.

In Response To: Insightful comment about luck versus skill (Perry Gartner)

There is the phenomenon of volatility of skill, which is in many cases indistinguishable from luck.

For example, there may be a skill difference between two players such that the more skillful player will sink the same 40 foot putt 10% of the time, as compared to 5% for the less skilled player. Regardless, would you not say that either player "got lucky" if they actually manage to sink the putt? There can be a large equity swing on that one outcome. It doesn't have to be a longshot either. Two players may have 60% vs 50% chances, yet the 50% player lands 4 in a row, while the 60% player lands 2 of 4. Has their skill changed? Or did one of them simply get lucky?

Golf and many sports are full of such examples of "performance volatility". A skillful baseball player rips a pitch down the line. It lands on the line and his team scores 2 runs and wins the game; it lands just a bit to the side and it is a foul ball - his team loses. Was it the batter's good or bad skill entirely responsible here? Or is the volatility between two substantially similar performances just very large and thus indistinguishable from luck?

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.