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OTB and rollout: This one came up in our chouette

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Sunday, 15 August 2010, at 12:34 a.m.

In Response To: This one came up in our chouette (Timothy Chow)

I was in the box here and I did not double. As Stick says, failing to double was a huge practical error. I had studied positions like this enough to know that technically it was a huge take. Whether it was a technical double was less clear to me. I have just enough spare pips to have a decent chance of escaping my back checker before cracking, but if I can't cover my blot and it gets hit then I'm in big trouble. GNU 2-ply doesn't double. The rollout indicates that it's a double, but I'm guessing that the double is closer than the rollout indicates because I think GNU 2-ply isn't always doubling when it should during the "no double" half of the rollout, so that the "no double" equity is an underestimate.

But the technical assessment is only part of the equation. I've played with my opponents enough that I should have known that many of them would misassess this position. I would probably have gotten several drops and possibly one beaver (from a player who consistently overestimates the difficulty of leaping a 5-prime when not at the edge). The cube should have been clear but I foolishly allowed myself to be distracted by the technicalities of the position.

gnubg	125
tchow	98
Position ID: 7G4DCGDWthsAIA Match ID: UQkAAAAAAAAA

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.456
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, take	+0.624
2.	Double, pass	+1.000	+0.376
3.	No double	+0.582	-0.042
Proper cube action:		Redouble, take
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Player tchow owns 2-cube 0.592 0.341 0.013 - 0.408 0.077 0.004 +0.456 +0.582 Standard error 0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.004 0.006 Player gnubg owns 4-cube 0.601 0.348 0.012 - 0.399 0.076 0.003 +0.967 +0.624 Standard error 0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.009 0.012
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 894359500 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• This one came up in our chouette
  Timothy Chow -- Friday, 13 August 2010, at 10:10 p.m.
  • This one came up in our chouette
    Stick -- Friday, 13 August 2010, at 10:23 p.m.
    • You guys should pay me for providing evidence for your contentions
      Chuck Bower -- Saturday, 14 August 2010, at 6:46 p.m.
  • This one came up in our chouette
    Seth -- Friday, 13 August 2010, at 10:57 p.m.
    • This one came up in our chouette
      Timothy Chow -- Friday, 13 August 2010, at 11:31 p.m.
  • This one came up in our chouette
    Chuck Bower -- Saturday, 14 August 2010, at 1:43 a.m.
  • This one came up in our chouette
    garyo -- Saturday, 14 August 2010, at 4:06 a.m.
  • This one came up in our chouette
    Casper van der Tak -- Saturday, 14 August 2010, at 6:53 a.m.
  • This one came up in our chouette
    lenny -- Saturday, 14 August 2010, at 8:00 a.m.
  • OTB and rollout: This one came up in our chouette
    Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 15 August 2010, at 12:34 a.m.
    • OTB and rollout: This one came up in our chouette
      neilkaz -- Sunday, 15 August 2010, at 1:11 a.m.