I don't know why anyone would double this. White has too much work to do to roll what is not even a prime yet. White could double this if he had market loosers. The double would be otherwise justified by the fact that it kills all gammons for Black. I did roll out the position though.
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| XGID=-A------a-----ABBABB-CAei-:0:0:1:00:5:9:0:11:10 | ||||||||||||||||
 on roll, cube action? | ||||||||||||||||
is Player 2| Analyzed in Rollout | |
| No Double | |
| Player Winning Chances: | 40.79% (G: 3.43% B: 0.04%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 59.21% (G: 53.81% B: 18.70%) |
| Double/Take | |
| Player Winning Chances: | 42.73% (G: 3.29% B: 0.01%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 57.27% (G: 52.73% B: 0.49%) |
| Cubeless Equities | |
| No Double: | -0.997 |
| Double: | -0.525 |
| Cubeful Equities | |
| No Double: | -0.597 (-0.073) |
| Double/Take: | -0.525 |
| Double/Drop: | +1.000 (+1.525) |
| Best Cube action: Double / Take | |
| Rollout details | |
| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply | |
| Confidence No Double: | ± 0.068 (-0.665...-0.530) |
| Confidence Double: | ± 0.072 (-0.597...-0.453) |
| Double Decision confidence: | 92.5% |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Duration: 39 minutes 25 seconds | |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.20, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
Surprise! Lets see what happens if we improove his position. |
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| XGID=-A------a-----BBBCCB---ei-:0:0:1:00:5:9:0:11:10 | ||||||||||||||||
| on roll, cube action? | ||||||||||||||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | |
| No Double | |
| Player Winning Chances: | 52.07% (G: 4.52% B: 0.09%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 47.93% (G: 40.17% B: 0.22%) |
| Double/Take | |
| Player Winning Chances: | 51.91% (G: 4.43% B: 0.09%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 48.09% (G: 40.59% B: 0.08%) |
| Cubeless Equities | |
| No Double: | -0.544 |
| Double: | -0.068 |
| Cubeful Equities | |
| No Double: | -0.048 |
| Double/Take: | -0.068 (-0.021) |
| Double/Drop: | +1.000 (+1.048) |
| Best Cube action: No Double / Take | |
| Rollout details | |
| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply | |
| Confidence No Double: | ± 0.088 (-0.136...+0.040) |
| Confidence Double: | ± 0.095 (-0.163...+0.026) |
| Double Decision confidence: | 62.2% |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Duration: 31 minutes 03 seconds | |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.20, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
He is a favourite now, yet this is a ND/T. So, how can the original position be a D/T if second one is a ND/T? I would double against a human in the second position (sometimes they drop). Anyway these rollouts results is a mystery for me.