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Bot eval, rollout and what I don't understand

Posted By: Klaus Evers
Date: Thursday, 19 August 2010, at 5:23 a.m.

In Response To: Bearing in against contact: now you can lose some equity (Klaus Evers)

I watched this match on the internet and later analyzed it. I don't know why the cube had not been turned before; probably a missed double a few moves ago.

And yes, in the position where 61 was rolled it was ~1.14 too good to double.

So, now for the strange bot eval that cought my intention when I looked closer to the analysis:

The score (after 0 games) is: White 3, You 1 (match to 5 points)

Move number 4: You to play 16

White147


' '2X2X2X2X2X '1X ' ' '

2O1X2O3O2X3O1O '2O '1O1O

You86

Position ID: bNsEwEizc5kCAA Match ID: cIm4ADAACAAA

2ply analysis

# Ply Move Equity
1 2 12/11 7/1 +0,965
0,656 0,308 0,007 - 0,344 0,053 0,001
2 2 11/4 +0,951 ( -0,013)
0,713 0,354 0,008 - 0,287 0,045 0,001
3 2 12/6 11/10 +0,945 ( -0,020)
0,704 0,347 0,007 - 0,296 0,045 0,001
4 2 12/6 7/6 +0,930 ( -0,035)
0,683 0,330 0,007 - 0,317 0,032 0,001

What I don't understand here is that 11/4 wins more games, more gammons and loses fewer gammons than 12/11 7/1 but it is ranked behind this move. Why?

4ply analysis

# Ply Move Equity
1 4 11/4 +0,951
0,723 0,353 0,007 - 0,277 0,046 0,001
2 4 12/11 7/1 +0,934 ( -0,017)
0,654 0,308 0,006 - 0,346 0,059 0,002
3 4 12/6 11/10 +0,915 ( -0,036)
0,705 0,348 0,007 - 0,295 0,049 0,001
4 4 12/6 7/6 +0,903 ( -0,047)
0,683 0,328 0,006 - 0,317 0,035 0,001

What I don't understand here is that 12/6 11/10 wins more games, more gammons and loses fewer gammons than 12/11 7/1 but it is ranked behind this move. Why?

2ply rollout

# Ply Move Equity
1 R 11/4 +0,886
0,7080,3280,005-0,2920,0470,002 +0,654 +0,886
0,0010,0020,000-0,0010,0010,000 0,003 0,005
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 894061949 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0,16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
2 R 12/6 11/10 +0,860 ( -0,026)
0,6960,3160,005-0,3040,0510,002 +0,617 +0,860
0,0010,0020,000-0,0010,0020,001 0,003 0,005
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 894061949 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0,16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
3 R 12/11 7/1 +0,838 ( -0,048)
0,6370,2830,009-0,3630,0610,004 +0,535 +0,838
0,0010,0010,001-0,0010,0020,001 0,005 0,006
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 894061949 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0,16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
4 R 12/6 7/6 +0,837 ( -0,049)
0,6700,3010,006-0,3300,0420,002 +0,575 +0,837
0,0010,0010,000-0,0010,0020,001 0,003 0,005
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 894061949 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0,16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

What I don't understand here is that 12/6 7/6 wins more games, more gammons and loses fewer gammons than 12/11 7/1 but it is ranked behind this move. Why?

For comparison reasons XG rollout:





is Player 2

score: 3
pip: 147
5 point match
pip: 86
score: 1

is Player 1
XGID=aBaBCbCA-B-AA---a-bbbbb---:0:0:1:61:1:3:0:5:8
to play 61

1.Rollout111/4eq: +0,892
Player:
Opponent:		 71,10% (G:33,05% B:0,71%)
28,90% (G:4,29% B:0,30%)		Conf: ± 0,007 (+0,885...+0,899)
Duration: 30 minutes 55 seconds
2.Rollout111/10 7/1eq: +0,861 (-0,031)
Player:
Opponent:		 66,04% (G:28,47% B:0,98%)
33,96% (G:5,50% B:0,43%)		Conf: ± 0,013 (+0,848...+0,874)
Duration: 45 minutes 43 seconds
3.Rollout112/6 11/10eq: +0,860 (-0,032)
Player:
Opponent:		 70,27% (G:31,28% B:0,75%)
29,73% (G:4,81% B:0,35%)		Conf: ± 0,011 (+0,849...+0,871)
Duration: 31 minutes 27 seconds
4.Rollout112/6 7/6eq: +0,841 (-0,050)
Player:
Opponent:		 67,05% (G:30,18% B:0,71%)
32,95% (G:3,90% B:0,18%)		Conf: ± 0,010 (+0,831...+0,851)
Duration: 31 minutes 00 second
5.Rollout112/11 7/1eq: +0,824 (-0,068)
Player:
Opponent:		 63,49% (G:27,27% B:0,77%)
36,51% (G:5,24% B:0,28%)		Conf: ± 0,010 (+0,814...+0,834)
Duration: 5 minutes 18 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Search interval: Large

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.14, MET: GnuBG 11 point

And finally, as someone suggested, with the cube on 2 it is right to go for the gammons:





is Player 2

score: 3
pip: 147
5 point match
pip: 86
score: 1

is Player 1
XGID=aBaBCbCA-B-AA---a-bbbbb---:1:-1:1:61:1:3:0:5:8
to play 61

1.Rollout19/2* eq: +1,268
Player:
Opponent:		 68,82% (G:44,59% B:3,37%)
31,18% (G:12,16% B:3,43%)		Conf: ± 0,008 (+1,260...+1,276)
Duration: 16 minutes 30 seconds
2.Rollout111/4eq: +1,088 (-0,180)
Player:
Opponent:		 70,69% (G:33,71% B:2,78%)
29,31% (G:5,64% B:0,46%)		Conf: ± 0,008 (+1,080...+1,096)
Duration: 2 hours 09 minutes
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Search interval: Large

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.14, MET: GnuBG 11 point

Any comments are appreciated. Thanks

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