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Insightful comment about luck versus skill

Posted By: Tom Keith
Date: Thursday, 19 August 2010, at 3:42 p.m.

In Response To: Insightful comment about luck versus skill (Gregg Cattanach)

asking how much backgammon is luck vs. skill is missing the point

I think it is reasonable to ask how much luck there is in backgammon as compared to other sports -- that is, how good is backgammon at discriminating between players of different abilities.

If a sport's luck/skill ratio is high, then competitions in that sport will have a harder time determining who is best. An example is golf versus tennis. In tennis it is quite common to see repeat winners. Less so in golf. Presumably that's because the best player wins tennis tournaments more often than the best player in golf tournaments. So I would argue there is more luck in golf than in tennis -- at least at the pro level in a typical tournament.

He says that backgammon is '100% a luck-management game'

Fair enough. But any sport in which the competitors don't play perfectly is a luck management game. This includes "pure skill" games, such as chess, where players have less than perfect understanding. You have to guess which play is more likely to succeed. And that means weighing risk and reward, just as in backgammon.

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