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BGonline.org Forums
Bot eval, rollout and what I don't understand
Posted By: Timothy Chow In Response To: Bot eval, rollout and what I don't understand (Klaus Evers)
Date: Thursday, 19 August 2010, at 3:53 p.m.
There's no magically easy answer to understanding where the cubeful equity comes from. In fact, I would recommend that you reverse your presumption: Your presumption seems to be that the cubeless wins/gammons reported by the bot are meaningful, and that if they don't make sense then some explanation is required. Instead, I always start with the presumption that these numbers are probably meaningless and that it's only by lucky accident that they actually tell us something. This presumption is especially appropriate here, in my opinion, because a centered cube at 2a4a is so "hot" that it's going to massively affect any understanding of what's going on. There are many sequences which result in D/P, so the cubeful play differs radically from the cubeless play. Trying to make sense of the cubeless numbers here is a waste of time in my book.
I recommend instead trying to understand the expert analyses posted here. Namely, at this score you are aiming for either an undoubled gammon or a D/P. So you don't want to get hit; on the other hand, you may be willing to risk a small number of shots if the safe play weakens your position by a lot.
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