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Rollout: Critical moment in a mutual holding game

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Saturday, 21 August 2010, at 12:00 a.m.

In Response To: Critical moment in a mutual holding game (Timothy Chow)

I correctly decided that it was premature to run, but didn't think it was worth leaving a shot to build my board, and pulled up my 8 point. Apparently I misjudged this one. If White had a five-point board then the decision would be much closer (see variant below).

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gnubg	98
tchow	104
Position ID: 19wwAAOzsw0ABg Match ID: cAkVAAAAIAAA

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	7/2 4/2	-0.165
			0.461 0.115 0.003 - 0.539 0.081 0.001 -0.043 -0.165 0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.003 0.006
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 894301832 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	8/6 8/3	-0.217 ( -0.052)
			0.438 0.091 0.003 - 0.562 0.074 0.002 -0.107 -0.217 0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.002 0.000 0.003 0.005
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 894301832 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	R	21/14	-0.231 ( -0.066)
			0.462 0.097 0.003 - 0.538 0.150 0.002 -0.128 -0.231 0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.002 0.000 0.003 0.006
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 894301832 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

---

Variant (rollout in progress):

gnubg	95
tchow	104
Position ID: t9kwAAOzsw0ABg Match ID: cAkVAAAAIAAA

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	4	8/6 8/3	-0.311
			0.409 0.063 0.001 - 0.591 0.076 0.001
	2	4	7/2 4/2	-0.312 ( -0.001)
			0.413 0.104 0.001 - 0.587 0.096 0.002

Messages In This Thread

• Critical moment in a mutual holding game
  Timothy Chow -- Friday, 20 August 2010, at 2:28 a.m.
  • Critical moment in a mutual holding game
    Stanley E. Richards -- Friday, 20 August 2010, at 6:23 a.m.
    • Critical moment in a mutual holding game
      Christian Munk-Christensen -- Friday, 20 August 2010, at 8:43 a.m.
    • Critical moment in a mutual holding game
      Casper van der Tak -- Friday, 20 August 2010, at 9:09 a.m.
  • Critical moment in a mutual holding game
    KenB -- Friday, 20 August 2010, at 3:11 p.m.
  • Critical moment in a mutual holding game
    garyo -- Friday, 20 August 2010, at 5:07 p.m.
  • Critical moment in a mutual holding game
    neilkaz -- Friday, 20 August 2010, at 5:55 p.m.
  • Critical moment in a mutual holding game
    johnk -- Friday, 20 August 2010, at 9:38 p.m.
  • Rollout: Critical moment in a mutual holding game
    Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 21 August 2010, at 12:00 a.m.
    • Rollout of variant
      Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 21 August 2010, at 4:19 a.m.