BGonline.org Forums

Rollout: Do you risk a 17-to-1 shot here?

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Sunday, 22 August 2010, at 12:52 a.m.

In Response To: Do you risk a 17-to-1 shot here? (Timothy Chow)

The 17-to-1 shot would probably be worth it even if White had a six-prime; see the variant below.

---

Original position:

gnubg	130
tchow	102
Position ID: ZtsGAA7G7o4IAA Match ID: QQkaABAAIAAA

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	14/10 11/5	+0.566
			0.798 0.050 0.001 - 0.202 0.016 0.000 +0.630 +0.566 0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.002 0.003
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 894215361 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	14/8 11/7	+0.523 ( -0.043)
			0.780 0.036 0.000 - 0.220 0.016 0.000 +0.580 +0.523 0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.003 0.003
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 894215361 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

---

Variant with six-prime:

gnubg	132
tchow	102
Position ID: bNsGAA7G7o4IAA Match ID: QQkaABAAIAAA

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	14/10 11/5	+0.532
			0.781 0.050 0.001 - 0.219 0.016 0.000 +0.595 +0.532 0.001 0.001 0.001 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.002 0.003
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 893649783 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	14/8 11/7	+0.515 ( -0.017)
			0.775 0.040 0.000 - 0.225 0.016 0.000 +0.574 +0.515 0.001 0.001 0.001 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.002 0.003
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 893649783 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• Do you risk a 17-to-1 shot here?
  Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 21 August 2010, at 12:52 a.m.
  • Do you risk a 17-to-1 shot here?
    Dmitriy Obukhov -- Saturday, 21 August 2010, at 1:16 a.m.
    • Do you risk a 17-to-1 shot here?
      Casper van der Tak -- Saturday, 21 August 2010, at 8:27 a.m.
  • Rollout: Do you risk a 17-to-1 shot here?
    Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 22 August 2010, at 12:52 a.m.