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Why people think bots cheat

Posted By: W Womack
Date: Tuesday, 24 August 2010, at 2:16 a.m.

In Response To: Why people think bots cheat (Timothy Chow)

That level of probability calculation is a bit beyond me without a lot of research, but back when I was working on the double issue with SHG I collected a sequence of 25,740 simulated dice rolls using random.org. Taking these in the order generated by the random.org server I analyzed for sequences where a series of 9 rolls (skipping every other roll to simulate dice being rolled by both players)total 43 or less. I found 8 sequences where the total pips were 43 or less (not counting overlapping sequences).

Given that a 9 roll sequence for one player is at least 17 total rolls there are 25740/17 or 1514.12 sequences represented by these data. This means that a 9 roll sequence of 43 or less occurred about 0.5% of the time in the sample data. Even without knowing the exact probability I would conclude that if I play enough I am getting to see that happen occasionally.

I look forward to seeing how you would formally calculate the probabilities.

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