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Recube Action @ 3a-7a

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Wednesday, 25 August 2010, at 3:19 a.m.

In Response To: Recube Action @ 3a-7a (Dmitriy Obukhov)

Black needs 9ish% to take, what are his chances? 26 #'s cover and Black wins around 1 of those. The other 10 don't but 8 of these at least allow White to hit loose. 21's the exception and I'd give black 33% chances in these two games which gives him another .67 wins. Black's also doing alright if he hits back after being hit loose but his chances must be a little worse than after White's 21 since the hitting 23 and 21 force another blot. I'd guess Black wins 25% of these 2.4 games for another .6 wins. In 3.6 games, White hits loose and Black dances. Black's chances aren't very good here, maybe 10% for another .36 wins. That's 2.63 wins so far which is a little short of the 3.24 wins needed to take ATS. Can Black find the other .61 wins in the 2 remaining games where he's hit loose and enters without hitting? I doubt his chances are 30% in these sequences, so it looks like a close pass.

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