Below is some related second and third roll money data (mostly truncs, which are good enough for our purposes). For simplicity, I include only the plays of H, P and K.
54S-53 ...... [H P36 K104]
21S-54S-53 [H K28 P53]
41S-54S-53 [P H49 K57]
51S-54S-53 [P H42 K70]
54D-54S-53 [P K24 H74]
54S-54S-53 [P K33 H59]
65R-54S-53 [P H36 K119]
52D-54S-53 [K H59 P66]
In the first two positions, H (Hit, 13/5*) is best. In the next five positions, P (Point, 8/3 6/3) is best. In the final position, K (Kill, 8/5* 6/1*) is best.
Observations: Making the 3pt is the best play when you have a second spare already on the 8pt and/or a builder on the 9pt (there's a built-in duplication of 4s). Otherwise, hit on the 5pt. The only position of the eight where you should also hit on the 1pt (K, double hit) is 52D-54S-53, where you have ten checkers in the zone and making the 3pt would leave a direct 6 shot.
That brings us to the position that arose in Cattanach-O'Hagan:
| |
|---|---|
| 52S-52D-42@-54C-53 | |
That analysis is for money. At the actual match score, -2-4, it's even worse to double-hit, probably a whopper.
If the score is reversed to -4-2 or at GG, that's much more interesting -- in that case perhaps all three plays are close. I see from Storm's post header that he is rolling out the position at GG.
Nack