BGonline.org Forums

Rollout Result, Evaluations, and Analysis

Posted By: Paul Weaver
Date: Thursday, 26 August 2010, at 5:07 p.m.

In Response To: Four Peever Whoppers in Same Game (Paul Weaver)

I got Position 1 wrong and so did some of those who responded.

Why is hitting 8/2* better than slotting 13/7?

(1) Hitting gives Black 4 fanning numbers; slotting gives Black no fans.

(2) Slotting facilitates Black's escape from White's home board. Hitting delays White's escape.

(3) Hitting duplicates White's aces.

(4) Slotting gives Black 5 numbers (51 41 44) that hit two checkers; hitting gives Black 3 numbers (21 11) that hit at least twice.

I am posting the rollout result for Position 1. I am posting the eval for Positions 2, 3 and 4, as well as initial double position.

	is snowflakes55 score: 7 pip: 155 11 point match pip: 161 score: 4 is peever
XGID=-Aaa-BC-C---dCa--b-cbAaA-A:0:0:1:64:4:7:0:11:10
to play 64

1.	Rollout1	Bar/21 8/2*	eq: -0.178
	Player: Opponent: 44.06% (G:14.28% B:0.74%) 55.94% (G:18.41% B:2.77%) Conf: ± 0.029 (-0.207...-0.149) Duration: 15 minutes 24 seconds
2.	Rollout1	Bar/21 13/7	eq: -0.304 (-0.126)
	Player: Opponent: 41.84% (G:12.82% B:0.58%) 58.16% (G:18.24% B:2.60%) Conf: ± 0.031 (-0.335...-0.273) Duration: 14 minutes 44 seconds
3.	2 ply	Bar/15	eq: -0.310 (-0.132)
	Player: Opponent: 41.09% (G:13.11% B:0.72%) 58.91% (G:23.05% B:1.77%)
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

	is snowflakes55 score: 7 pip: 154 11 point match pip: 164 score: 4 is peever
XGID=-A--aBCbC---cB---bbcbCA---:0:0:1:54:4:7:0:11:10
to play 54

1.	XG Roller+	21/16 8/4*	eq: -0.565
	Player: Opponent: 36.09% (G:8.42% B:0.27%) 63.91% (G:19.44% B:0.93%)
2.	XG Roller+	8/4* 6/1	eq: -0.659 (-0.094)
	Player: Opponent: 33.02% (G:8.79% B:0.20%) 66.98% (G:18.25% B:0.75%)
3.	4 ply	21/16 6/2	eq: -0.658 (-0.093)
	Player: Opponent: 32.65% (G:7.41% B:0.24%) 67.35% (G:17.47% B:0.65%)
4.	2 ply	21/16 5/1	eq: -0.788 (-0.223)
	Player: Opponent: 31.36% (G:7.17% B:0.21%) 68.64% (G:19.79% B:0.83%)
5.	2 ply	8/3 6/2	eq: -0.853 (-0.288)
	Player: Opponent: 29.83% (G:6.93% B:0.20%) 70.17% (G:18.28% B:0.65%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

	is snowflakes55 score: 7 pip: 158 11 point match pip: 155 score: 4 is peever
XGID=aB--ABBbB---cB---bbcbCA---:0:0:-1:00:4:7:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller+
Player Winning Chances:	67.17% (G: 18.22% B: 0.74%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	32.83% (G: 8.62% B: 0.18%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0.497
Double:	+1.148
Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0.660
Double/Take:	+0.585 (-0.075)
Double/Drop:	+1.000 (+0.340)
Best Cube action: No Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

	is snowflakes55 score: 7 pip: 124 11 point match pip: 165 score: 4 is peever
XGID=-B--aBBbB----B-A-cbbbDab--:1:1:1:64:4:7:0:11:10
to play 64

1.	XG Roller+	21/11	eq: -0.115
	Player: Opponent: 36.56% (G:8.38% B:0.23%) 63.44% (G:19.26% B:0.58%)
2.	XG Roller+	15/5	eq: -0.202 (-0.088)
	Player: Opponent: 33.30% (G:7.30% B:0.19%) 66.70% (G:16.72% B:0.47%)
3.	3 ply	21/15 8/4*	eq: -0.211 (-0.096)
	Player: Opponent: 35.51% (G:8.91% B:0.24%) 64.49% (G:26.16% B:1.01%)
4.	3 ply	15/9 13/9	eq: -0.259 (-0.144)
	Player: Opponent: 32.61% (G:7.80% B:0.25%) 67.39% (G:21.14% B:0.65%)
5.	2 ply	21/15 13/9	eq: -0.338 (-0.223)
	Player: Opponent: 32.56% (G:7.99% B:0.30%) 67.44% (G:29.54% B:1.18%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

	is snowflakes55 score: 7 pip: 118 11 point match pip: 146 score: 4 is peever
XGID=aB--ACCb-----B-A-b-cbBcbA-:1:1:1:00:4:7:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller+
Player Winning Chances:	42.86% (G: 12.03% B: 0.35%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	57.14% (G: 19.30% B: 0.74%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:	-0.231
Redouble:	+0.051
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:	+0.144
Redouble/Take:	+0.051 (-0.094)
Redouble/Drop:	+1.000 (+0.856)
Best Cube action: No Redouble / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Messages In This Thread

• Four Peever Whoppers in Same Game
  Paul Weaver -- Wednesday, 25 August 2010, at 11:54 a.m.
  • Four Peever Whoppers in Same Game
    Michael Crane -- Wednesday, 25 August 2010, at 12:05 p.m.
    • Four Peever Whoppers in Same Game
      Leonardo Jerkovic -- Wednesday, 25 August 2010, at 12:38 p.m.
  • Four Peever Whoppers in Same Game
    Christian Munk-Christensen -- Wednesday, 25 August 2010, at 12:49 p.m.
    • Four Peever Whoppers in Same Game *NM*
      Paul Weaver -- Wednesday, 25 August 2010, at 1:01 p.m.
    • 2-Cube From Same Game
      Paul Weaver -- Wednesday, 25 August 2010, at 1:04 p.m.
      • 2-Cube From Same Game
        Christian Munk-Christensen -- Wednesday, 25 August 2010, at 3:34 p.m.
  • Four Peever Whoppers in Same Game
    David Rockwell -- Wednesday, 25 August 2010, at 2:56 p.m.
  • Four Peever Whoppers in Same Game
    David Rockwell -- Wednesday, 25 August 2010, at 4:26 p.m.
  • Four Peever Whoppers in Same Game
    Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 25 August 2010, at 11:59 p.m.
  • Four Peever Whoppers in Same Game
    Casper van der Tak -- Thursday, 26 August 2010, at 1:56 a.m.
  • Four Peever Whoppers in Same Game
    johnk -- Thursday, 26 August 2010, at 4:29 a.m.
  • Rollout Result, Evaluations, and Analysis
    Paul Weaver -- Thursday, 26 August 2010, at 5:07 p.m.