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Rollout: Three on the bar! Cube action?

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Friday, 27 August 2010, at 12:15 a.m.

In Response To: Three on the bar! Cube action? (Timothy Chow)

If we believe the rollout, this is a massive ND, not far from a beaver! Although it's clear to anyone with some experience with these sorts of positions that it's a take, I'm a little surprised at how low the reported equity of D/T is. Not sure if the bot is handling the cube correctly from here on out.

Anyway, the chouette question is perhaps the more interesting one. If we believe the absolute equity numbers, then the box needs about one drop for every two takes to justify doubling. Seems risky to me since everyone can see that Blue is collapsed and has four dead checkers. But it could make sense in some chouettes.

gnubg	151
tchow	83
Position ID: zLYNAHB3d0AABg Match ID: UQkAAFABCAAA

Alert: wrong double ( -0.290)! [very bad]

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.234
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+0.362
2.	Double, pass	+1.000	+0.638
3.	Double, take	+0.072	-0.290
Proper cube action:		No redouble, take (31.2%)
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Player tchow owns 2-cube 0.511 0.322 0.004 - 0.489 0.109 0.004 +0.234 +0.362 Standard error 0.002 0.002 0.000 - 0.002 0.002 0.000 0.005 0.007 Player gnubg owns 4-cube 0.516 0.332 0.001 - 0.484 0.100 0.002 +0.526 +0.072 Standard error 0.002 0.002 0.000 - 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.010 0.016
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 895020886 and quasi-random dice
Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• Three on the bar! Cube action?
  Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 26 August 2010, at 1:47 a.m.
  • Three on the bar! Cube action?
    Gabriel Davis -- Thursday, 26 August 2010, at 2:05 a.m.
    • Three on the bar! Cube action?
      Seth -- Thursday, 26 August 2010, at 2:36 p.m.
  • Rollout: Three on the bar! Cube action?
    Timothy Chow -- Friday, 27 August 2010, at 12:15 a.m.
    • Rollout: Three on the bar! Cube action?
      Chuck Bower -- Monday, 30 August 2010, at 12:16 a.m.
      • Rollout: Three on the bar! Cube action?
        Timothy Chow -- Monday, 30 August 2010, at 1:58 a.m.
        • Rollout: Three on the bar! Cube action?
          Chuck Bower -- Monday, 30 August 2010, at 5:05 p.m.
    • XG RO
      Petter Bengtsson -- Monday, 30 August 2010, at 12:03 p.m.