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Rollout

Posted By: Paul Weaver
Date: Thursday, 2 September 2010, at 3:38 a.m.

In Response To: Never cube at -3 -7 (except when it's a cube) (joe freedman)

I used to try to prove Stick wrong, but I gave up. Stick is never wrong.....

except when he told Simonetta he was 27, causing her to lose a five-pound bet with me (over/under 30). Being such a gentleman, I refused to collect. The important thing was that I won the bet. ("I was right and you were wrong!")

Note to Xavier for next version of XG: I realize English is not your native language and your English is much better than my French (all I know is "Sil vous plait") so I understand that you would not know this. In future versions of XG, please change

Best Cube action: Too Good to Double / Drop

to

Best Cube action: Too F Good to Double / Drop

is Player 2

score: 4
pip: 127
11 point match
pip: 104
score: 8

is Player 1
XGID=-B--aCCBB---cCa--c-c-bb---:0:0:1:00:8:4:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 81.90% (G: 17.57% B: 0.11%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 18.10% (G: 1.70% B: 0.05%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 81.24% (G: 21.10% B: 0.41%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 18.76% (G: 1.84% B: 0.09%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.797
Double:+1.506
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+1.004
Double/Take:+1.264 (+0.259)
Double/Drop:+1.000 (-0.004)
Best Cube action: Too Good to Double / Drop
Rollout details
10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0.003 (+1.002...+1.007)
Confidence Double: ± 0.006 (+1.257...+1.270)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 00 minute

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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