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Whopper where you least expect it

Posted By: Mislav Kovacic
Date: Thursday, 2 September 2010, at 2:03 p.m.

In Response To: Whopper where you least expect it (Mislav Kovacic)

I ran my game through Thorough analysis and was shocked to see my 13/6 marked by XG as a serious error. I was even more shocked when 5ply confirmed the weird 13/12 13/7 as being correct. Difference was large enough that I didn't expect any major changes after the rollout, especially since the position is a very simple one.

is Player 2 score: 5 pip: 94

7 point match

pip: 121 score: 3 is Player 1

XGID=-B-B-BB-B--b-C---bBcdaba--:0:0:1:61:3:5:0:7:10

to play 61

1.	3 ply	13/12 13/7	eq: -0,480
	Player: Opponent: 28,73% (G:7,83% B:0,64%) 71,27% (G:16,86% B:0,60%)
2.	3 ply	13/6	eq: -0,588 (-0,108)
	Player: Opponent: 27,29% (G:1,61% B:0,02%) 72,71% (G:3,32% B:0,02%)
4.	2 ply	13/7 8/7	eq: -0,651 (-0,171)
	Player: Opponent: 25,77% (G:1,20% B:0,02%) 74,23% (G:4,25% B:0,03%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

is Player 2 score: 5 pip: 94

7 point match

pip: 121 score: 3 is Player 1

XGID=-B-B-BB-B--b-C---bBcdaba--:0:0:1:61:3:5:0:7:10

to play 61

1.	5 ply	13/12 13/7	eq: -0,484
	Player: Opponent: 27,97% (G:8,03% B:0,76%) 72,03% (G:17,86% B:0,64%)
2.	5 ply	13/6	eq: -0,597 (-0,113)
	Player: Opponent: 26,34% (G:1,48% B:0,02%) 73,66% (G:3,38% B:0,06%)
3.	5 ply	13/7 8/7	eq: -0,609 (-0,125)
	Player: Opponent: 26,00% (G:1,49% B:0,02%) 74,00% (G:3,76% B:0,07%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

But fortunately XG hasn't completely lost it's mind and the RO made much more sense. :)

is Player 2 score: 5 pip: 94

7 point match

pip: 121 score: 3 is Player 1

XGID=-B-B-BB-B--b-C---bBcdaba--:0:0:1:61:3:5:0:7:10

to play 61

1.	Rollout1	13/7 8/7	eq: -0,616
	Player: Opponent: 24,66% (G:1,67% B:0,08%) 75,34% (G:5,44% B:0,22%) Conf: ± 0,010 (-0,626...-0,606) Duration: 10 minutes 46 seconds
2.	Rollout1	13/6	eq: -0,619 (-0,003)
	Player: Opponent: 24,69% (G:1,72% B:0,07%) 75,31% (G:5,45% B:0,16%) Conf: ± 0,010 (-0,629...-0,609) Duration: 12 minutes 25 seconds
3.	Rollout1	13/12 13/7	eq: -0,728 (-0,112)
	Player: Opponent: 22,93% (G:2,08% B:0,09%) 77,07% (G:10,47% B:0,42%) Conf: ± 0,012 (-0,740...-0,716) Duration: 14 minutes 18 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

I know one should never trust the evaluations blindly, but I don't remember ever seeing XG 5 ply make a whopper in a position as simple as this one.

Messages In This Thread

• Whopper where you least expect it
  Mislav Kovacic -- Wednesday, 1 September 2010, at 6:02 p.m.
  • Whopper where you least expect it
    Seth -- Thursday, 2 September 2010, at 1:17 a.m.
  • Whopper where you least expect it
    neilkaz -- Thursday, 2 September 2010, at 3:15 a.m.
    • Whopper where you least expect it
      Leonardo Jerkovic -- Thursday, 2 September 2010, at 5:31 a.m.
  • Whopper where you least expect it
    misja -- Thursday, 2 September 2010, at 6:47 a.m.
  • Whopper where you least expect it
    Havard Raddum -- Thursday, 2 September 2010, at 9:24 a.m.
  • Whopper where you least expect it
    Mislav Kovacic -- Thursday, 2 September 2010, at 2:03 p.m.