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BGonline.org Forums
Doubles final cube decision
Posted By: John O'Hagan In Response To: Doubles final cube decision (adambulldog)
Date: Tuesday, 7 September 2010, at 4:40 a.m.
LOL Adam. Don't need to know the natural log to use Kleinman's racing formula. You just need to compute D (the difference between the two pip counts) and S (their sum). You first subtract 4 from the side on roll's p.c. So the 41-44 race becomes 37-44. Then figure out if D squared/S is > or < 1. Here it 49/81, which is way less than 1. If this fraction is less than 1, the leader's cubeless winning chances are about 50% + (D/Sq root of S)(27%). Here that's 50% + 7/9(27%) = 71%.
If D squared/S is >1, use the following table. 1 = 76%, 1.2 = 78%, 1.4 = 80%, 2.0 = 84%, 3.0 = 89%, 4.0 = 92%, and 5-9 = 95%-99%. A ratio of 1.25 gives the leader about 78.5% cubeless chances so anything above that is usually a pass for money or moneylike match scores.
It's not THAT difficult to use OTB and it is the best IMO for figuring out cube actions at lopsided match scores. Sometimes the trailer will need 12% to take a redouble while the leader might need 35%. The other racing formulas (at least the ones I'm aware of) won't do you much good in either of these cases. They'll just tell you that the first is a huge pass for money and the second an easy take and not even a correct money recube for the other side. Kleinman will give you a cubeless winning percent and one that, in my experience, is pretty accurate as well.
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