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Position from badger classic match

Posted By: Joe Russell
Date: Tuesday, 7 September 2010, at 6:11 a.m.

In Response To: Position from badger classic match (John O'Hagan)

Using the Kleinman count, I would make blonde about 81.67% to win if it were a straight race so it must be a double. Is it a take? How much does it differ from a straight race? Quite a bit. Contact favors brown but by how much? Many times brown will be forced to run at some point and be pointed on by white. To maximize winning chances from contact, brown will be forced to give up racing chances.

If ~30% of the games end up with there being some form of contact and brown wins ~1/3 of those does he have a take? On the 70% with no contact, I estimate brown only wins about 15% instead of 18.33%, because of the wastage that may be created by choosing to or not being able to run. In short, I estimate brown may win about 10% from contact plus (.15*.70)= 10.5% from racing for a total of 20.5%. D/P.

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