[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

*Spoilers*

Posted By: Joe Russell
Date: Tuesday, 7 September 2010, at 7:27 a.m.

In Response To: Another one from Madison (John O'Hagan)

At -7, -8, before I would consider doubling, I would want to cover the three point and hope blonde dances. Even then, depending upon the number of brown men still remaining in blonde's board, he may still have a take. Four in a row is more than you think and even one man entering from the bar in the next few rolls will leave white with reasonable winning chances and the threat of a potent 8 cube down the road.

If, instead of leading, brown was trailing -8, -7, I would double in a flash and I don't think blonde could take the cube.

Here are the brief rollouts:

The first leading - 7, -8





is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 126
9 point match
pip: 154
score: 1

is Player 1
XGID=-b--aBCCB-a--C-----bbcabaB:1:-1:-1:00:1:2:0:9:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 61.52% (G: 44.14% B: 1.22%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 38.48% (G: 9.94% B: 0.76%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 61.37% (G: 44.53% B: 3.04%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 38.63% (G: 9.40% B: 1.37%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:+0.586
Redouble:+0.921
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:+0.665
Redouble/Take:+0.400 (-0.266)
Redouble/Drop:+1.000 (+0.335)
Best Cube action: No Redouble / Take
Rollout details
197 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3 ply, cube decisions: 4 ply
Search interval: Large
Confidence No Redouble: ± 0.039 (+0.627...+0.704)
Confidence Redouble: ± 0.075 (+0.324...+0.475)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 2 minutes 56 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.20, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

And trailing -8, -7





is Player 2

score: 1
pip: 126
9 point match
pip: 154
score: 2

is Player 1
XGID=-b--aBCCB-a--C-----bbcabaB:1:-1:-1:00:2:1:0:9:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 61.28% (G: 42.80% B: 0.75%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 38.72% (G: 10.24% B: 0.81%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 61.30% (G: 44.34% B: 3.46%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 38.70% (G: 9.81% B: 0.96%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:+0.604
Redouble:+1.462
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:+0.837 (-0.163)
Redouble/Take:+1.201 (+0.201)
Redouble/Drop:+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Drop
Rollout details
172 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3 ply, cube decisions: 4 ply
Search interval: Large
Confidence No Redouble: ± 0.038 (+0.799...+0.876)
Confidence Redouble: ± 0.069 (+1.132...+1.270)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 3 minutes 41 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.20, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

I think difference of .8 in redoubling at the the two different match scores is illuminating.

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.