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Rollout: Highly volatile endgame

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Wednesday, 8 September 2010, at 12:17 a.m.

In Response To: Highly volatile endgame (Timothy Chow)

Sorry...false alarm about the "strange results." I rolled out several variants and got confused about which rollout was which. What I thought was strange was that 14/10/9 was coming out as a strong candidate, but that was at gammon save. For money, 14/13* 8/4 is clear.

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Unlimited game: tchow to play 14

gnubg	84
tchow	76
Position ID: drsDgQAv7RwIAA Match ID: cIkQAAAAAAAA

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	14/13* 8/4	+0.244
			0.535 0.094 0.001 - 0.465 0.145 0.006 +0.015 +0.244 0.000 0.001 0.000 - 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.002
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 894694679 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	8/7* 6/2	+0.102 ( -0.141)
			0.492 0.045 0.001 - 0.508 0.212 0.009 -0.190 +0.102 0.001 0.000 0.000 - 0.001 0.002 0.001 0.002 0.005
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 894694679 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

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The score is: gnubg 0, tchow 2 (match to 4 points)

gnubg	84
tchow	76
Position ID: drsDgQAv7RwIAA Match ID: UQmGAAAAEAAA

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	14/13* 8/4	-0.203
			0.533 0.165 0.000 - 0.467 0.134 0.005 -0.203 -0.203 0.001 0.006 0.002 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.003 0.003
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 895081879 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	14/9	-0.213 ( -0.009)
			0.437 0.007 0.000 - 0.563 0.043 0.001 -0.213 -0.213 0.001 0.001 0.001 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.002 0.002
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 895081879 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• Highly volatile endgame
  Timothy Chow -- Monday, 6 September 2010, at 7:41 p.m.
  • Highly volatile endgame
    Bob Koca -- Monday, 6 September 2010, at 8:28 p.m.
    • Highly volatile endgame
      Timothy Chow -- Monday, 6 September 2010, at 10:46 p.m.
  • Highly volatile endgame
    Daniel Murphy -- Tuesday, 7 September 2010, at 12:43 a.m.
  • Rollout: Highly volatile endgame
    Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 8 September 2010, at 12:17 a.m.
    • Rollout: Highly volatile endgame
      Daniel Murphy -- Wednesday, 8 September 2010, at 3:44 a.m.