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*Spoilers*

Posted By: Joe Russell
Date: Wednesday, 8 September 2010, at 5:53 a.m.

In Response To: *Spoilers* (John O'Hagan)

Excellent points. The difference in blondes recube equity at the two match scores is well illustrated when the following sequence occurs: brown rolls 5-3, blonde any 3 other than double 3, brown rolls 5-1:

The resulting position and the cube action at each score:

First with brown leading -7,-8:





is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 135
9 point match
pip: 151
score: 1

is Player 1
XGID=-c---BCCBa---Ca----bbbAbbA:2:1:1:00:1:2:0:9:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 61.89% (G: 18.01% B: 2.36%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 38.11% (G: 20.88% B: 0.52%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 62.25% (G: 19.08% B: 2.50%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 37.75% (G: 21.05% B: 0.21%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:+0.291
Redouble:+0.694
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:+0.620 (-0.074)
Redouble/Take:+0.694
Redouble/Drop:+1.000 (+0.306)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
449 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3 ply, cube decisions: 4 ply
Search interval: Large
Confidence No Redouble: ± 0.021 (+0.599...+0.642)
Confidence Redouble: ± 0.024 (+0.670...+0.718)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 6 minutes 56 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.20, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

and with brown trailing -8,-7:





is Player 2

score: 1
pip: 135
9 point match
pip: 151
score: 2

is Player 1
XGID=-c---BCCBa---Ca----bbbAbbA:2:1:1:00:2:1:0:9:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 61.65% (G: 19.20% B: 2.47%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 38.35% (G: 21.03% B: 1.66%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 62.04% (G: 18.70% B: 2.46%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 37.96% (G: 21.42% B: 0.25%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:+0.131
Redouble:+0.269
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:+0.299
Redouble/Take:+0.269 (-0.031)
Redouble/Drop:+1.000 (+0.701)
Best Cube action: No Redouble / Take
Rollout details
746 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3 ply, cube decisions: 4 ply
Search interval: Large
Confidence No Redouble: ± 0.016 (+0.283...+0.316)
Confidence Redouble: ± 0.019 (+0.249...+0.288)
Double Decision confidence: 99.1%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 15 minutes 02 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.20, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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