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Playing against two high anchors #2

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Friday, 10 September 2010, at 1:15 a.m.

In Response To: Playing against two high anchors #2 (Timothy Chow)

Here I played 13/11*/6 thinking I should try to hang on to my race lead and figuring I could make an outfield point next turn without having to hit twice. GNU 2-ply doesn't like it but puts it only 0.054 back; however, the rollout below downgrades it to a whopper. Though GNU 2-ply thinks everything but 13/11* 6/1* and 13/11*/6 is a whopper, we can't necessarily trust it because its equity estimate for 13/11* 6/1* is +0.711 whereas the rollout estimates it at +0.364. (And for that matter, is the rollout fully trustworthy here?) So maybe some other play is actually best. Nevertheless, the arguments people have given for the double hit seem pretty good. It's not really that bad if we get hit on the 1-point, and if we're missed then we are in a much better position for making those vital outfield points.

gnubg	205
tchow	135
Position ID: mDMQuCmM56EDCA Match ID: UYkKAAAAEAAA

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	13/11* 6/1*	+0.364
			0.510 0.264 0.010 - 0.490 0.110 0.004 +0.180 +0.364 0.003 0.002 0.001 - 0.003 0.002 0.002 0.007 0.014
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 900578334 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	13/11*/6	+0.255 ( -0.109)
			0.480 0.251 0.009 - 0.520 0.109 0.003 +0.108 +0.255 0.003 0.002 0.001 - 0.003 0.003 0.001 0.008 0.014
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 900578334 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• Playing against two high anchors #2
  Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 9 September 2010, at 2:43 a.m.
  • Playing against two high anchors #2
    Daniel Murphy -- Thursday, 9 September 2010, at 4:18 a.m.
    • Playing against two high anchors #2
      Casper van der Tak -- Thursday, 9 September 2010, at 4:33 a.m.
      • Playing against two high anchors #2
        Christian Munk-Christensen -- Thursday, 9 September 2010, at 3:28 p.m.
  • Playing against two high anchors #2
    Timothy Chow -- Friday, 10 September 2010, at 1:15 a.m.
  • Playing against two high anchors #2
    svilo -- Friday, 10 September 2010, at 3:48 p.m.