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Rollout: Some time later in the same game...

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Saturday, 11 September 2010, at 1:51 a.m.

In Response To: Some time later in the same game... (Timothy Chow)

And here's an illustration of how things can go wrong for Blue. Blue did manage to scramble home safely and start bearing off, but was still forced to leave a shot, which White hit. The rollout indicates that it's a close pass. Blue's slim chances of avoiding the closeout are apparently not enough compensation for not having enough checkers off yet.

gnubg	113
tchow	41
Position ID: 7wcAAGTbLgCSAA Match ID: AwEAAAAAKAAA

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.559
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, pass	+1.000
2.	Double, take	+1.013	+0.013
3.	No double	+0.947	-0.053
Proper cube action:		Redouble, pass
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Player gnubg owns 8-cube 0.797 0.000 0.000 - 0.203 0.034 0.000 +0.559 +0.947 Standard error 0.000 0.000 0.000 - 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.002 Player tchow owns 16-cube 0.794 0.000 0.000 - 0.206 0.028 0.000 +1.119 +1.013 Standard error 0.000 0.000 0.000 - 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.002 0.003
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
2592 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 900015069 and quasi-random dice
Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• Some time later in the same game...
  Timothy Chow -- Friday, 10 September 2010, at 1:38 a.m.
  • Some time later in the same game...
    Chuck Bower -- Friday, 10 September 2010, at 4:53 p.m.
  • Some time later in the same game...
    Casper van der Tak -- Friday, 10 September 2010, at 5:27 p.m.
  • Rollout: Some time later in the same game...
    Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 11 September 2010, at 1:51 a.m.
    • Rollout: Some time later in the same game...
      Stick -- Saturday, 11 September 2010, at 2:28 a.m.