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Rollout: Weird endgame cube

Posted By: Stick
Date: Saturday, 11 September 2010, at 2:14 a.m.

In Response To: Rollout: Weird endgame cube (Timothy Chow)

Scrambling both checkers home safely is far from a done deal.

Maybe you intended to state it or imply it but in your explanation I don't think it's included. It's not merely scrambling the checkers home, it's also getting them off the board once they are home. Having the 5pt still to clear is a big difference when compared to the 4pt or of course the 3pt. (XG RO has the same figures for the original position) How the numbers play immediately differ wildly also so the comparisons aren't perfect but still worth thinking about.

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 114
Money session
pip: 47
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=aEFaBa--A-----A----cbbbba-:2:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 64.51% (G: 25.21% B: 0.11%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35.49% (G: 4.89% B: 0.15%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 64.94% (G: 26.31% B: 0.12%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35.06% (G: 5.38% B: 0.19%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:+0.493
Redouble:+1.015
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:+0.657 (-0.196)
Redouble/Take:+0.853
Redouble/Drop:+1.000 (+0.147)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 79870500
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Redouble: ± 0.008 (+0.649...+0.665)
Confidence Redouble: ± 0.012 (+0.840...+0.865)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 1 minute 55 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21
is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 113
Money session
pip: 45
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=aEFBaa--A-----A----cbbbba-:2:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 69.50% (G: 28.58% B: 0.12%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 30.50% (G: 2.59% B: 0.09%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 69.82% (G: 29.67% B: 0.13%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 30.18% (G: 2.99% B: 0.10%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:+0.650
Redouble:+1.327
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:+0.798 (-0.202)
Redouble/Take:+1.173 (+0.173)
Redouble/Drop:+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Drop
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 79870500
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Redouble: ± 0.006 (+0.792...+0.804)
Confidence Redouble: ± 0.011 (+1.163...+1.184)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 1 minute 18 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

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