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Rollout: Late-game blitz, sort of

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Sunday, 12 September 2010, at 1:55 a.m.

In Response To: Late-game blitz, sort of (Timothy Chow)

I redoubled here and was surprised that GNU 2-ply thought that redoubling was a 0.071 error, with the equity of double/take being +0.589. The rollout below tells a very different story: It's a big redouble and a pretty close take. This isn't the first time I've seen GNU 2-ply grossly misevaluate a late-game blitz and I'm wondering what it's not seeing.

gnubg	125
tchow	126
Position ID: Y7sBHEDMtjkQCA Match ID: UQkAAEAAIAAA

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.526
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, take	+0.950
2.	Double, pass	+1.000	+0.050
3.	No double	+0.862	-0.088
Proper cube action:		Redouble, take
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Player tchow owns 2-cube 0.705 0.185 0.005 - 0.295 0.073 0.001 +0.526 +0.862 Standard error 0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.004 0.009 Player gnubg owns 4-cube 0.724 0.188 0.004 - 0.276 0.068 0.002 +1.141 +0.950 Standard error 0.002 0.003 0.000 - 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.010 0.013
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 900032391 and quasi-random dice
Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• Late-game blitz, sort of
  Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 11 September 2010, at 2:08 a.m.
  • Late-game blitz, sort of
    Chuck Bower -- Saturday, 11 September 2010, at 4:46 p.m.
  • Rollout: Late-game blitz, sort of
    Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 12 September 2010, at 1:55 a.m.
    • Rollout: Late-game blitz, sort of
      Stick -- Sunday, 12 September 2010, at 2:09 a.m.