ATS, my OTB estimate was that the leader's 2-cube takepoint was right around the normal 25%, gammon values help the trailer more by something like 60%/42%, and the leader will seldom be able to offer a sensible recube since T's takepoint on anything but a last roll position would be around 12% and recubing would kill his own gammons. At lopsided scores like this, my rule of thumb is that the trailer's cube starts to become profitable when he's within 8% of the oppt's takepoint and he has 3 or 4 market losers in 36. If you have more than 3 or 4 market losers, you can double or redouble even earlier. I didn't think I was within the 8% guideline but I figured I had more than 3 or 4, so I doubled. RO sez it's a small double and a huge take.
|
| |||
| XGID=----BBBCB---------abbeeBB-:0:0:1:00:2:9:0:13:10 | ||||
 on roll, cube action? | ||||
is Player 2| Analyzed in Rollout | |
| No Double | |
| Player Winning Chances: | 63.69% (G: 9.34% B: 0.48%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 36.31% (G: 18.72% B: 5.52%) |
| Double/Take | |
| Player Winning Chances: | 65.21% (G: 11.31% B: 0.60%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 34.79% (G: 18.63% B: 8.04%) |
| Cubeless Equities | |
| No Double: | +0.093 |
| Double: | +0.508 |
| Cubeful Equities | |
| No Double: | +0.454 (-0.042) |
| Double/Take: | +0.496 |
| Double/Drop: | +1.000 (+0.504) |
| Best Cube action: Double / Take | |
| Rollout details | |
| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply | |
| Confidence No Double: | ± 0.022 (+0.432...+0.476) |
| Confidence Double: | ± 0.028 (+0.468...+0.525) |
| Double Decision confidence: | 99.0% |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Duration: 15 minutes 37 seconds | |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross