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Rollout: Four blots to choose from! (5th roll position)

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Monday, 13 September 2010, at 11:18 p.m.

In Response To: Four blots to choose from! (5th roll position) (Timothy Chow)

This is only a 1296-game rollout, so the true equity differences may not be as large as they appear below, but nevertheless I think the rollout is long enough for us to conclude that GNU has a clear preference for bar/20* 9/8. Over the board I decided to shun the temptation to hit twice with bar/24* 8/3*, but then I played bar/20* 23/22 instead of bar/20* 9/8. In retrospect it seems logical that if Blue is going to make the positional play of bar/20* and try to exploit his race lead, then playing safe with 9/8 is indicated. However, it's not always easy to untrain myself of the habit of avoiding stacks.

Perhaps someone could do a longer XG rollout to get a better estimate of how close the double hit is.

gnubg	157
tchow	163
Position ID: oWfwASTgc+EBSA Match ID: cIkGAAAAAAAA

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	bar/20* 9/8	+0.365
			0.582 0.175 0.010 - 0.418 0.103 0.003 +0.241 +0.365 0.002 0.003 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.000 0.007 0.016
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 900143756 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	bar/20* 23/22	+0.282 ( -0.082)
			0.567 0.171 0.011 - 0.433 0.104 0.003 +0.209 +0.282 0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.000 0.006 0.015
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 900143756 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	R	bar/24* 8/3*	+0.279 ( -0.086)
			0.549 0.223 0.019 - 0.451 0.112 0.006 +0.224 +0.279 0.002 0.002 0.002 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.007 0.017
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 900143756 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	4	R	bar/20* 8/7	+0.247 ( -0.117)
			0.551 0.187 0.013 - 0.449 0.114 0.005 +0.182 +0.247 0.003 0.003 0.002 - 0.003 0.002 0.001 0.008 0.020
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 900143756 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• Four blots to choose from! (5th roll position)
  Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 12 September 2010, at 8:07 p.m.
  • Four blots to choose from! (5th roll position)
    John O'Hagan -- Monday, 13 September 2010, at 4:26 a.m.
  • 41S-41K-52>-32X-51
    Nack Ballard -- Monday, 13 September 2010, at 5:36 a.m.
    • 41S-41K-52-32X-51
      Timothy Chow -- Monday, 13 September 2010, at 1:56 p.m.
      • 43Z-43, and 43Z-43K-52>-21
        Nack Ballard -- Wednesday, 15 September 2010, at 9:51 p.m.
  • Four blots to choose from! (5th roll position)
    neilkaz -- Monday, 13 September 2010, at 3:40 p.m.
  • Rollout: Four blots to choose from! (5th roll position)
    Timothy Chow -- Monday, 13 September 2010, at 11:18 p.m.
    • Rollout: Four blots to choose from! (5th roll position)
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Tuesday, 14 September 2010, at 4:37 a.m.
    • XG RO
      neilkaz -- Tuesday, 14 September 2010, at 5:19 p.m.
      • Thanks, Neil! *NM*
        Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 14 September 2010, at 9:47 p.m.