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Recube action?

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Tuesday, 14 September 2010, at 4:14 p.m.

In Response To: Recube action? (John O'Hagan)

If I just take the 4-cube and never redouble, I estimated my takepoint to be 21.5%, gammons don't matter much (around 6%), and the leader's 8-cube takepoint is around 44%. So I'll need around 15% cubeless chances to take. I thought it was a close take but the RO sez it's not even a recube.

is Player 2

score: 8
pip: 36
13 point match
pip: 80
score: 1

is Player 1
XGID=aDCBB----A--B---------bAe-:1:-1:-1:00:1:8:0:13:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 85.69% (G: 19.37% B: 0.58%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 14.31% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 84.66% (G: 25.88% B: 2.42%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 15.34% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:+0.875
Redouble:+1.290
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:+0.905
Redouble/Take:+0.827 (-0.078)
Redouble/Drop:+1.000 (+0.095)
Best Cube action: No Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Redouble: ± 0.010 (+0.895...+0.915)
Confidence Redouble: ± 0.018 (+0.809...+0.846)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 1 minute 25 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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