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Giant versus average open player

Posted By: Tom Keith
Date: Tuesday, 14 September 2010, at 10:51 p.m.

In Response To: Giant versus average open player (Joe Russell)

As others have mentioned, it's not clear what you are asking. So let's make some assumptions and restate the question:

Giant Player and an average Open Player are playing an 11-point match. What's the probability that Open Player wins?

We still have to make some guesses. Suppose the range of players in a typical Open tournament is 200 elo points. Giant Player would be at the very top of this range and Open Player is in the middle, so 100 elo points is the difference.

According to the rating formula a player with a 100-elo-point advantage wins an 11-point match 59.4% of the time. (Stating this as skill-versus-luck, you might say that 38.8% of the time the result is determined by skill and 61.2% of the time it is determined by luck.)

Messages In This Thread

• Giant versus average open player
  Joe Russell -- Tuesday, 14 September 2010, at 9:33 p.m.
  • Giant versus average open player
    Jason Lee -- Tuesday, 14 September 2010, at 9:40 p.m.
    • Giant versus average open player
      Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 14 September 2010, at 11:52 p.m.
      • Giant versus average open player
        Joe Russell -- Wednesday, 15 September 2010, at 10:54 a.m.
        • Giant versus average open player
          Tom Keith -- Wednesday, 15 September 2010, at 12:18 p.m.
          • Giant versus average open player
            Matt Cohn-Geier -- Wednesday, 15 September 2010, at 3:24 p.m.
          • Giant versus average open player
            Rich Munitz -- Wednesday, 15 September 2010, at 3:47 p.m.
            • Giant versus average open player
              Maik Stiebler -- Wednesday, 15 September 2010, at 4:16 p.m.
              • oops, that was meant as a reply to MCG
                Maik Stiebler -- Wednesday, 15 September 2010, at 4:20 p.m.
            • Giant versus average open player
              Tom Keith -- Wednesday, 15 September 2010, at 4:33 p.m.
        • Some data
          Chuck Bower -- Wednesday, 15 September 2010, at 5:21 p.m.
          • match lengths = 7 pts *NM*
            Chuck Bower -- Wednesday, 15 September 2010, at 5:25 p.m.
      • Giant versus average open player
        Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 15 September 2010, at 5:25 p.m.
  • Giant versus average open player
    Casper van der Tak -- Tuesday, 14 September 2010, at 9:41 p.m.
  • Giant versus average open player
    Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 14 September 2010, at 9:42 p.m.
    • Giant versus average open player
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Wednesday, 15 September 2010, at 5:09 a.m.
  • Giant versus average open player
    Leonardo Jerkovic -- Tuesday, 14 September 2010, at 9:50 p.m.
  • Giant versus average open player
    Steve Mellen -- Tuesday, 14 September 2010, at 9:55 p.m.
    • Giant versus average open player
      Casper van der Tak -- Tuesday, 14 September 2010, at 10:07 p.m.
      • Giant versus average open player
        Steve Mellen -- Tuesday, 14 September 2010, at 10:25 p.m.
        • Giant versus average open player
          Rich Munitz -- Tuesday, 14 September 2010, at 11:09 p.m.
        • Giant versus average open player
          Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 14 September 2010, at 11:44 p.m.
          • Giant versus average open player
            Steve Mellen -- Tuesday, 14 September 2010, at 11:59 p.m.
            • Giant versus average open player
              Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 15 September 2010, at 2:20 p.m.
              • Giant versus average open player
                Steve Mellen -- Wednesday, 15 September 2010, at 3:17 p.m.
        • Giant versus average open player
          Stanley E. Richards -- Wednesday, 15 September 2010, at 3:37 a.m.
          • Giant versus average open player
            Steve Mellen -- Wednesday, 15 September 2010, at 4:03 a.m.
            • Giant versus average open player
              Casper van der Tak -- Wednesday, 15 September 2010, at 6:35 a.m.
              • Giant versus average open player
                Steve Mellen -- Wednesday, 15 September 2010, at 3:30 p.m.
                • Giant versus average open player
                  Daniel Murphy -- Wednesday, 15 September 2010, at 4:01 p.m.
                  • Giant versus average open player
                    Rich Munitz -- Wednesday, 15 September 2010, at 4:18 p.m.
                    • Giant versus average open player
                      Daniel Murphy -- Wednesday, 15 September 2010, at 5:46 p.m.
                  • Giant versus average open player
                    Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 15 September 2010, at 5:21 p.m.
                    • Giant versus average open player
                      Daniel Murphy -- Wednesday, 15 September 2010, at 5:47 p.m.
                      • Giant versus average open player
                        Gregg Cattanach -- Wednesday, 15 September 2010, at 6:23 p.m.
                        • Giant versus average open player
                          Casper van der Tak -- Wednesday, 15 September 2010, at 6:28 p.m.
                          • Giant versus average open player
                            Daniel Murphy -- Wednesday, 15 September 2010, at 7:48 p.m.
                • Giant versus average open player
                  Casper van der Tak -- Wednesday, 15 September 2010, at 4:11 p.m.
                  • Giant versus average open player
                    Steve Mellen -- Wednesday, 15 September 2010, at 4:58 p.m.
                    • Giant versus average open player
                      Casper van der Tak -- Wednesday, 15 September 2010, at 5:06 p.m.
          • Giant versus average open player
            Tom Keith -- Wednesday, 15 September 2010, at 3:36 p.m.
        • Giant versus average open player
          Bill Riles -- Wednesday, 15 September 2010, at 3:59 a.m.
          • The True Test of Skill is Duplicate BG
            phil simborg -- Friday, 17 September 2010, at 11:28 p.m.
            • The True Test of Skill is Duplicate BG
              Bob Koca -- Saturday, 18 September 2010, at 5:42 p.m.
              • The True Test of Skill is Duplicate BG
                Bob Koca -- Saturday, 25 September 2010, at 7:46 p.m.
              • The True Test of Skill is Duplicate BG
                Perry Gartner -- Sunday, 26 September 2010, at 12:22 a.m.
                • The True Test of Skill is Duplicate BG
                  Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 26 September 2010, at 1:21 a.m.
                  • The True Test of Skill is Duplicate BG
                    Stick -- Sunday, 26 September 2010, at 1:31 a.m.
                    • The True Test of Skill is Duplicate BG
                      Chuck Bower -- Sunday, 26 September 2010, at 1:39 a.m.
                    • The True Test of Skill is Duplicate BG
                      Perry Gartner -- Sunday, 26 September 2010, at 8:09 a.m.
                      • The True Test of Skill is Duplicate BG
                        Bob Koca -- Monday, 27 September 2010, at 11:17 a.m.
                        • The True Test of Skill is Duplicate BG
                          Perry Gartner -- Tuesday, 28 September 2010, at 2:19 a.m.
                          • The True Test of Skill is Duplicate BG
                            Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 28 September 2010, at 4:21 a.m.
                            • The True Test of Skill is Duplicate BG
                              Stick -- Tuesday, 28 September 2010, at 4:28 a.m.
                              • The True Test of Skill is Duplicate BG
                                Perry Gartner -- Tuesday, 28 September 2010, at 11:44 a.m.
                                • The True Test of Skill is Duplicate BG
                                  Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 28 September 2010, at 1:02 p.m.
                                  • Alternate solution
                                    Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 28 September 2010, at 1:26 p.m.
                                    • Another alternate solution
                                      Casper van der Tak -- Tuesday, 28 September 2010, at 1:39 p.m.
                                      • Another alternate solution
                                        Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 28 September 2010, at 3:26 p.m.
                                        • Another alternate solution
                                          Sam Pottle -- Tuesday, 28 September 2010, at 4:14 p.m.
                                          • Another alternate solution
                                            Casper van der Tak -- Tuesday, 28 September 2010, at 4:57 p.m.
                                  • The True Test of Skill is Duplicate BG
                                    Stick -- Tuesday, 28 September 2010, at 9:01 p.m.
                          • The True Test of Skill is Duplicate BG
                            Sam Pottle -- Tuesday, 28 September 2010, at 7:51 a.m.
                    • The True Test of Skill is Duplicate BG
                      Maik Stiebler -- Sunday, 26 September 2010, at 8:33 a.m.
                • The True Test of Skill is Duplicate BG
                  Maik Stiebler -- Sunday, 26 September 2010, at 9:13 a.m.
                  • The True Test of Skill is Duplicate BG
                    Perry Gartner -- Sunday, 26 September 2010, at 6:17 p.m.
            • The True Test of Skill is Duplicate BG
              Leonardo Jerkovic -- Sunday, 26 September 2010, at 11:44 a.m.
              • The True Test of Skill is Duplicate BG
                Perry Gartner -- Sunday, 26 September 2010, at 6:33 p.m.
            • The True Test of Skill is Duplicate BG
              Daniel Murphy -- Sunday, 26 September 2010, at 7:23 p.m.
              • The True Test of Skill is Duplicate BG
                Perry Gartner -- Monday, 27 September 2010, at 2:02 a.m.
              • The True Test of Skill is Duplicate BG
                phil simborg -- Monday, 27 September 2010, at 4:03 a.m.
            • The True Test of Skill is Duplicate BG
              Gregg Cattanach -- Monday, 27 September 2010, at 12:51 p.m.
      • Giant versus average open player
        Bill Riles -- Tuesday, 14 September 2010, at 10:29 p.m.
      • Giant versus average open player
        garyo -- Tuesday, 14 September 2010, at 11:33 p.m.
        • LOL! *NM*
          Casper van der Tak -- Wednesday, 15 September 2010, at 6:20 a.m.
    • Giant versus average open player
      Daniel Murphy -- Tuesday, 14 September 2010, at 11:20 p.m.
  • Giant versus average open player
    Tom Keith -- Tuesday, 14 September 2010, at 10:51 p.m.
    • Giant versus average open player
      Casper van der Tak -- Wednesday, 15 September 2010, at 6:14 a.m.
    • Giant versus average open player
      Tom Keith -- Wednesday, 15 September 2010, at 10:20 a.m.
  • Giant versus average open player reworded
    Joe Russell -- Wednesday, 15 September 2010, at 1:40 a.m.
    • Correction of last statement
      Joe Russell -- Wednesday, 15 September 2010, at 2:58 a.m.
      • Correction of last statement
        Maik Stiebler -- Wednesday, 15 September 2010, at 3:06 p.m.
    • Giant versus average open player reworded
      Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 15 September 2010, at 5:15 p.m.
      • Giant versus average open player reworded
        Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 15 September 2010, at 5:16 p.m.
  • Giant versus average open player
    phil simborg -- Wednesday, 15 September 2010, at 5:13 a.m.
    • Giant versus average open player
      Joe Russell -- Wednesday, 15 September 2010, at 5:38 a.m.
      • Giant versus average open player
        Rich Munitz -- Wednesday, 15 September 2010, at 2:57 p.m.
  • Giant versus average open player
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Wednesday, 15 September 2010, at 5:38 a.m.
    • Giant versus average open player
      Joe Russell -- Wednesday, 15 September 2010, at 7:17 a.m.
  • Giant versus average open player
    mtuhtan -- Wednesday, 15 September 2010, at 6:04 a.m.
  • Giant versus average open player
    misja -- Wednesday, 15 September 2010, at 7:01 a.m.
    • More data
      Chuck Bower -- Wednesday, 15 September 2010, at 6:22 p.m.
      • More data
        misja -- Thursday, 16 September 2010, at 9:13 a.m.
        • More data
          Rich Munitz -- Thursday, 16 September 2010, at 3:47 p.m.
  • Giant versus average open player
    alex21 -- Wednesday, 15 September 2010, at 11:51 a.m.
  • Giant versus average open player
    Daniel Murphy -- Wednesday, 15 September 2010, at 4:54 p.m.
  • Giant versus average open player
    Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 15 September 2010, at 5:10 p.m.
  • Giant versus average open player
    trichard -- Wednesday, 15 September 2010, at 9:13 p.m.
    • Giant versus average open player
      Bob Koca -- Thursday, 16 September 2010, at 2:24 a.m.
  • Giant versus average open player
    Daniel Murphy -- Saturday, 25 September 2010, at 8:30 p.m.
    • Number of Open players (BoE)
      Chuck Bower -- Sunday, 26 September 2010, at 12:16 a.m.
      • Number of Open players (BoE)
        Daniel Murphy -- Sunday, 26 September 2010, at 1:03 a.m.
        • Number of Open players (BoE)
          Daniel Murphy -- Sunday, 26 September 2010, at 7:31 p.m.
          • Giants at ABT events
            Chuck Bower -- Sunday, 26 September 2010, at 9:56 p.m.
            • Giants at ABT events
              Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 27 September 2010, at 5:52 a.m.