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Giant versus average open player

Posted By: Tom Keith
Date: Wednesday, 15 September 2010, at 4:33 p.m.

In Response To: Giant versus average open player (Rich Munitz)

Rich wrote: we assume that on average [the more skilled player] gets the better dice 50% of the time and the worse dice 50% of the time

On the surface that sounds logical, but I don't think it works out that way.

At the start of the match, both players have a 50% chance of winning (from a perfect player's point of view). But, over the course of the match, Player A (the better player) accumulates a 10% advantage (by making fewer mistakes). This takes him to 60% MWC. But he still needs 40% net positive luck to reach 100% MWC.

Player A wins more matches than B because he doesn't need as much luck to win. But he still needs some luck to win.

Over the course of an average 100 games:

  • A wins 60 games, B wins 40 games.
  • A is luckier in 60 games, B is luckier in 40 games.
  • A's average net luck in the games he wins is 0.40.
  • B's average net luck in the games he wins is 0.60.

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