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Giant versus average open player

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Wednesday, 15 September 2010, at 5:46 p.m.

In Response To: Giant versus average open player (Rich Munitz)

Yes, luck must determine the outcome, but that is still not to say that the luckier perfect player will always win.

Well, if only luck has determined the outcome, then the luckier player must have won. There's simply no quantity of superior skill that affected the outcome. What else affected the outcome? Only luck. In this scenario, if the luck analysis has the less lucky player winning, there's something wrong with the analysis. And you are correct, Rich, that the winning player might not be rated luckiest by luck analysis. I (quite easily) constructed a 7-point match that unfolded as follows:

GameResultPlayer A's luckPlayer B's luck
1 A doubles B out+0.593-0.434
2 A doubles B out+0.474-0.466
3 A doubles B out+0.541-0.554
4 A doubles, B redoubles and wins gammon and match+0.893+2.931
In all+2.502+1.476

Perfect A, rated "luckiest," lost the match to Perfect B.

btw this is Gnubg 2-ply analysis with its default (0-ply, I think) luck analysis.

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