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Giant versus average open player

Posted By: trichard
Date: Wednesday, 15 September 2010, at 9:13 p.m.

In Response To: Giant versus average open player (Joe Russell)

This ought to be easy for one of you math wizards but you have to stipulate (a) the length of the match, (b) the average points won per game and (c) the odds of the Giant winning each game assuming equal dice. Given these facts, the percentage of times the Giant wins can be calculated (e.g. 55%) and the balance is attribute to luck.

I've always thought one of the drawbacks of match play is that so much is dependent on the luck factor, but even so, I suspect the answer to the above calculation is a fair amount higher than 5%. I recall reading years ago that at the craps table even though the odds against you on any one roll are tiny (less than 1%), if you roll the dice 100 times the chances of you coming out ahead after 100 rolls are very small - the odds in favor of the house grind you down. In the same way, the odds in favor of the Giant will tend to grind down the average open player. Luck will still prevail most of the time, however.

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