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Rollout: Volatile endgame cube

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Friday, 17 September 2010, at 1:15 a.m.

In Response To: Volatile endgame cube (Timothy Chow)

According to the rollouts below, the double is clear with Jacoby but borderline without. There is some doubt in my mind about whether these rollouts are fully trustworthy, since there are many variations with potential immediate cubes/recubes and I suspect GNU gets a number of them wrong. Having said that, I can believe that with Jacoby it's a double, since a hit and a dance is clearly way too good. It takes guts to double, though, since Blue is only a small favorite.

gnubg	84
tchow	89
Position ID: 29oMgQBt2wPAAA Match ID: cAkAAAAAAAAA

With Jacoby:

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.239
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, take	+0.108
2.	Double, pass	+1.000	+0.892
3.	No double	+0.025	-0.083
Proper cube action:		Double, take
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.564 0.204 0.005 - 0.436 0.095 0.003 +0.239 +0.025 Standard error 0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.002 0.004 Player gnubg owns 2-cube 0.565 0.181 0.005 - 0.435 0.097 0.003 +0.431 +0.108 Standard error 0.001 0.002 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.005 0.008
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 901451477 and quasi-random dice
Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

---

Without Jacoby:

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.215
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+0.114
2.	Double, pass	+1.000	+0.886
3.	Double, take	+0.105	-0.009
Proper cube action:		No double, take (1.0%)
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.563 0.185 0.005 - 0.437 0.097 0.003 +0.215 +0.114 Standard error 0.001 0.002 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.003 0.004 Player gnubg owns 2-cube 0.566 0.184 0.004 - 0.434 0.098 0.004 +0.436 +0.105 Standard error 0.001 0.002 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.005 0.008
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 901681800 and quasi-random dice
Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• Volatile endgame cube
  Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 16 September 2010, at 2:23 a.m.
  • Volatile endgame cube
    Christian Plenz -- Thursday, 16 September 2010, at 2:04 p.m.
    • optimistic thought
      Christian Plenz -- Thursday, 16 September 2010, at 2:17 p.m.
  • Rollout: Volatile endgame cube
    Timothy Chow -- Friday, 17 September 2010, at 1:15 a.m.