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Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Friday, 17 September 2010, at 2:51 a.m.

In Response To: Rollout (Stick)

I wanted to have two separate posts to give you the chance to see the first post and go "really?" If you did, congrats. Upon seeing the 3 ply rollout something smelled foul and since Rory was nowhere in sight I suspected a little bit of investigation might lead me to the reasoning.

After the hitting play of 5/4 5/3* does the bot double because I certainly would. Survey says ... nope. It of course shouldn't double after the 11/8 play because there is a lot less volatility and blots flying around so no need to check that. A rollout confirms it is a clear double after the wackjob hitting play so I found a ply that would properly cube after 5/4 5/3* and did another rollout.

This rollout could certainly be extended if I wanted a definitive answer. I don't. I was looking for verification that 3 ply is a donkey and I have it here. Even if the tide turns and the fruitcake hitting play is correct, it will be by hardly anything at all and not ~60 as the 3ply/3ply rollout suggested. Lesson to be taken from this, don't always swallow what's fed to you if it doesn't make sense. Bots are donkeys too.

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 122 Money session Jacoby Beaver pip: 103 score: 0 is Player 1
XGID=-BBaBBB-A--AbB---cbcbbA---:0:0:1:21:0:0:3:0:10
to play 21

1.	Rollout1	11/8	eq: -0.309
	Player: Opponent: 38.27% (G:16.38% B:0.19%) 61.73% (G:11.59% B:0.54%) Conf: ± 0.012 (-0.321...-0.297) Duration: 2 hours 19 minutes
2.	Rollout1	5/4 5/3*	eq: -0.316 (-0.007)
	Player: Opponent: 39.54% (G:14.90% B:0.12%) 60.46% (G:20.51% B:1.68%) Conf: ± 0.027 (-0.343...-0.289) Duration: 1 hour 08 minutes
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 24983242 Moves: 3 ply, cube decisions: 5 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

Messages In This Thread

• QF^3
  Stick -- Tuesday, 14 September 2010, at 9:52 p.m.
  • QF^3
    Casper van der Tak -- Tuesday, 14 September 2010, at 10:04 p.m.
  • QF^3
    Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 14 September 2010, at 10:21 p.m.
  • QF^3
    Bill Riles -- Tuesday, 14 September 2010, at 10:23 p.m.
    • QF^3
      Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 15 September 2010, at 4:20 p.m.
      • QF^3
        Bill Riles -- Wednesday, 15 September 2010, at 4:37 p.m.
  • QF^3
    garyo -- Tuesday, 14 September 2010, at 11:51 p.m.
    • QF^3
      Marv Porten -- Wednesday, 15 September 2010, at 4:17 a.m.
  • QF^3
    Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 14 September 2010, at 11:55 p.m.
  • QF^3
    Stanley E. Richards -- Wednesday, 15 September 2010, at 3:25 a.m.
    • QF^3
      Bill Riles -- Wednesday, 15 September 2010, at 3:49 a.m.
      • QF^3
        Stanley E. Richards -- Wednesday, 15 September 2010, at 5:09 a.m.
        • QF^3
          Bill Riles -- Wednesday, 15 September 2010, at 5:28 a.m.
          • Is it weak to not answer the question?
            Stanley E. Richards -- Thursday, 16 September 2010, at 6:48 a.m.
        • QF^3
          Gregg Cattanach -- Wednesday, 15 September 2010, at 3:05 p.m.
          • QF^3
            Stanley E. Richards -- Thursday, 16 September 2010, at 6:59 a.m.
            • QF^3
              Gregg Cattanach -- Thursday, 16 September 2010, at 1:15 p.m.
              • QF^3
                Stick -- Thursday, 16 September 2010, at 1:46 p.m.
                • QF^3
                  Gregg Cattanach -- Thursday, 16 September 2010, at 3:24 p.m.
    • QF^3
      Casper van der Tak -- Wednesday, 15 September 2010, at 6:02 a.m.
  • QF^3
    Justin N. -- Wednesday, 15 September 2010, at 7:46 a.m.
  • QF^3
    misja -- Wednesday, 15 September 2010, at 9:56 a.m.
  • QF^3
    adambulldog -- Wednesday, 15 September 2010, at 12:28 p.m.
  • Rollout
    Stick -- Friday, 17 September 2010, at 2:42 a.m.
    • Rollout
      Stick -- Friday, 17 September 2010, at 2:51 a.m.
      • Use 3 ply and "Rollout for double/no double"
        neilkaz -- Friday, 17 September 2010, at 3:13 a.m.
        • Use 3 ply and "Rollout for double/no double"
          phil simborg -- Friday, 17 September 2010, at 4:37 p.m.
          • Use 3 ply and "Rollout for double/no double"
            Chuck Bower -- Saturday, 18 September 2010, at 12:09 a.m.
    • Rollout
      Stanley E. Richards -- Friday, 17 September 2010, at 11:23 p.m.