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BGonline.org Forums
66 at DMP
Posted By: John O'Hagan In Response To: 66 at DMP (storm)
Date: Saturday, 18 September 2010, at 1:58 p.m.
Definitely make the 18 with the first two 6s and then either make the bar, play 21/9, dup 3s with 21/15 13/7, or play safe with 11/5(2). The safe play looks overly cautious and the duping 3s play doesn't feel right either. So it's either make the bar or start the 9. How to decide between these two? The race is now close and starting the 9 has the advantage of leaving fewer shots and blots. It starts a good blocking point and you'll be a fav to cover it or make the bar if not hit. OTOH, White's 13 hitters hit and start his escape from the 21-point with tempo. How about making the 7-point? It gives you 4 in a row in front of White's anchor and most of White's hits on the mid still leave two men back on the 21-point. It does leave a second blot and that could be a negative for you. If one is hit and you fan, the other one is vulnerable and hitting it could give White the time he needs to get his back men out and become a clear fav to win the game. The blot this play leaves behind on the 21-point could do you some good as well. If White rolls 42 or 31, I think he'll hit loose on his 4-point and you'll gain a lot in the race if you hit back. If White rolls 21, I think he'll have to play 13/10 so the checker on the 21 will give you a double shot rather than just a single shot if you had played 21/9. There are other variations where the blot on the 21 will hurt your chances: If he hits loose and you fan or if he rolls a jokerish D4 or D2 and PoH. These bad variations might get you g'd a little more often but that's irrelevant at DMP.
Not at all sure, but I'll vote for making the 7-point.
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