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Rollout: Sorry it's less than 24 hrs...

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Saturday, 18 September 2010, at 4:24 p.m.

In Response To: Gotta break a point...which one? (Timothy Chow)

...but I'm not going to have ready access to my main computer for the next day or so. In any case, this position interests me enough that I'd be interested even in post hoc explanations.

OTB I figured White's blotty board entitled me to play something bolder than 8/5 8/3. (In fact I did not roll out 8/5 8/3 because it didn't look close.) I played 14/6 figuring that a spare on the 6 point is a useful asset and I might as well clear from the rear. However, the rollout clearly prefers the bold 14/11 14/9. While it's clear what the idea behind this move is, doesn't it seem a bit reckless to leave two blots (plus the blot on the ace point, which is a liability if a blot-hitting contest materializes)? Is there some rule of thumb that will help me decide when this degree of boldness is warranted?

gnubg	120
tchow	113
Position ID: WneBAQaZbYMNAA Match ID: cIkVACAACAAA

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	14/11 14/9	+0.334
			0.593 0.088 0.009 - 0.407 0.122 0.005 +0.156 +0.334 0.001 0.001 0.001 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.003 0.008
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 900945285 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	13/10 13/8	+0.279 ( -0.055)
			0.587 0.080 0.005 - 0.413 0.101 0.003 +0.155 +0.279 0.001 0.001 0.001 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.003 0.008
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 900945285 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	R	14/6	+0.273 ( -0.061)
			0.584 0.083 0.006 - 0.416 0.094 0.003 +0.161 +0.273 0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.002 0.007
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 900945285 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	4	R	13/5	+0.266 ( -0.068)
			0.586 0.113 0.009 - 0.414 0.099 0.003 +0.193 +0.266 0.001 0.001 0.001 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.003 0.008
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 900945285 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• Gotta break a point...which one?
  Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 18 September 2010, at 1:28 a.m.
  • Gotta break a point...which one?
    Bill Riles -- Saturday, 18 September 2010, at 1:52 a.m.
    • Gotta break a point...which one?
      Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 18 September 2010, at 2:11 a.m.
      • Gotta break a point...which one?
        Bill Riles -- Saturday, 18 September 2010, at 3:48 a.m.
  • Gotta break a point...which one?
    Chuck Bower -- Saturday, 18 September 2010, at 4:00 p.m.
  • Rollout: Sorry it's less than 24 hrs...
    Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 18 September 2010, at 4:24 p.m.
    • Rollout: Sorry it's less than 24 hrs...
      christian munk-christensen -- Saturday, 18 September 2010, at 10:10 p.m.
    • Rollout: Sorry it's less than 24 hrs...
      Chuck Bower -- Saturday, 18 September 2010, at 11:57 p.m.
      • XG RO (with Jacoby)
        Petter Bengtsson -- Sunday, 19 September 2010, at 12:03 a.m.
        • I just started a Jacobyless RO; report later *NM*
          Chuck Bower -- Sunday, 19 September 2010, at 12:46 a.m.
        • XG RO (without Jacoby)
          Chuck Bower -- Sunday, 19 September 2010, at 1:57 a.m.
          • XG RO (without Jacoby)
            Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 19 September 2010, at 6:15 p.m.
    • Rollout of 8/5 8/3
      Timothy Chow -- Monday, 20 September 2010, at 10:07 p.m.