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How well would a bot do in a human tournament?

Posted By: Marv Porten
Date: Saturday, 18 September 2010, at 8:08 p.m.

In Response To: How well would a bot do in a human tournament? (Timothy Chow)

I think that the starting point would be making an assumption about what percentage of 25 point matches the bot would win, on average, against mid-range to upper-range open level players. Does 2/3 (66.7%) sound about right? I would guess that it's close to 2/3. If the bot plays 9 players in the mid to upper-range category in a random round-robin tournament, and if it won 6 matches and lost 3 matches, it would have a good chance to cash, but it probably wouldn't win. However, the bot will go 7-2 or 8-1 (I'm guessing here, someone else will have to be more precise) 25% or so of the time, and it will win the tournament more than half of those times. If my assumptions are close to correct, I'd estimate that the bot would win one out of every 6 or 7 round-robin tournaments that it entered. If it were a six round knockout tournament, the bot would likely win one tournament out of every eleven that it entered.

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